Amid a global slowdown and elevated trade tensions, the Thai economy is projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2019 and 3.9 in 2020, according to the World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor released today.
Investing in human capital and pursuing economic reforms is critically important for Thailand to become a high-income nation with equal opportunities for all citizens.
In 2018, despite external shocks to trade and tourism, growth of the Thai economy is estimated to have accelerated to 4.1 percent, the report says.
The Thai economy proved to be resilient in the face of strong global headwinds due to strengthening domestic demand stemming from an upswing in private consumption and private investment.
In line with trends in the global economy, a slight economic slowdown is expected in 2019. Public infrastructure spending in expected to accelerate in 2019 and pick up in 2020 as the Eastern Economic Corridor projects are being implemented.
Weaker global growth to impact Thailand’s economy
“Weaker global growth will likely impact the export performance of Thailand and restrain manufacturing activities in export-oriented industries,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank Senior Economist for Thailand.
“In this context, continued implementation of public infrastructure projects and economic reforms can help catalyze domestic demand in 2019 and support medium-term growth.”Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank Senior Economist for Thailand.
Last October, The World Bank launched the Human Capital Index, which measures the productivity level for the next generation of workers relative to their full potential if all education and health outcomes were maximized.
While Thailand scores in the upper half of the various indicators compared to ASEAN countries and other upper-middle income country peers, there remains room for improvement.
In Thailand, a child born today will reach only 60 percent of potential, in terms of productivity and lifetime income.
Unequal education challenge
Unequal education quality in Thailand is one of the biggest challenges, with poorer areas being underserved. Due to under-resourced small schools, with inadequate infrastructure and education materials, the 12.4 years of basic schooling expected for a child born today in Thailand are equivalent to just 8.6 years – a learning gap of 3.8 years.
The high burden of non-communicable diseases and road traffic injuries has negatively affected the country’s adult survival rates, which is lower than half of the average global rate.
“Sustaining the pace and quality of structural reforms will be crucial for reducing poverty and raising Thailand’s long-term growth path above 4 percent in the face of demographic challenges caused by rapid aging,” said Birgit Hansl, World Bank Country Manager for Thailand.
“To build a better future for all Thais, an emphasis on human capital investment is key. Addressing priority areas in education and health can go a long way in equalizing opportunities for the next generation.”
Birgit Hansl, World Bank Country Manager for Thailand
Priority areas for improving human capital in Thailand include addressing challenges faced by small schools where approximately one million poor children are currently getting inferior quality education.
To do so, efforts should focus on improving school-based management, and increasing the efficiency of public education expenditures, the report argues. Promoting healthier outcomes, particularly focusing on prevention and reducing risk factors, is essential to increase Thailand’s adult survival rate.
The Thailand Economic Monitor, published twice a year, is the World Bank Thailand’s office’s flagship report, analyzing the country’s economic performance and outlook. The January 2019 edition focuses on Thailand’s challenges and opportunities in enhancing human capital and reducing inequality.
Thai fruit exports to FTA markets up 107 percent
China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Australia and Chile are top importers of Thai fruits, especially fresh durian, mangosteen, longan and mango. Thai exporters are able to benefit from FTA privileges.
BANGKOK (NNT) – Thailand’s fruit exports continue to increase, despite the sluggish global economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with key trade partners being countries that have free trade agreements (FTAs) with the kingdom.
The Future of Asia: greener but with a public and private debt hangover
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a perfect storm, destroying jobs, worsening poverty and inequality, and creating a public and private debt problem—especially for countries and firms already in fragile financial health beforehand
50:50 campaign may not get immediate extension
BANGKOK (NNT) – The government’s 50:50 co-pay campaign expiring on 31st March may not be getting an immediate campaign extension. The Minister of Finance says campaign evaluation is needed to improve future campaigns.
The Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith today announced the government may not be able to reach a conclusion on the extension of the 50:50 co-pay campaign in time for the current 31st March campaign end date, as evaluations are needed to better improve the campaign.
Originally introduced last year, the 50:50 campaign is a financial aid campaign for people impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the government subsidizes up to half the price of purchases at participating stores, with a daily cap on the subsidy amount of 150 baht, and a 3,500 baht per person subsidy limit over the entire campaign.
The campaign has already been extended once, with the current end date set for 31st March.
The Finance Minister said that payout campaigns for the general public are still valid in this period, allowing time for the 50:50 campaign to be assessed, and to address reports of fraud at some participating stores.
The Fiscal Police Office Director General and the Ministry of Finance Spokesperson Kulaya Tantitemit, said today that a bigger quota could be offered in Phase 3 of the 50:50 campaign beyond the 15 million people enrolled in the first two phases, while existing participants will need to confirm their identity if they want to participate in Phase 3, without the need to fill out the registration form.
Mrs Kulaya said the campaign will still be funded by emergency loan credit allocated for pandemic compensation, which still has about 200 billion baht available as of today.
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