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Thai exports could drop 0.6% in 2019

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that Thai exports in 2019 will drop 0.6% year on year, the first contraction in four years.

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Dr. Aat Pisanwanich, Director of Center for International Trade Studies (CITS) of UTCC, said that total Thai exports this year are expected to reach USD251.338 billion, 0.64% less than last year and the first contraction in four years.

Nonetheless, CITS predicts that Thai outbound shipments in the second half of this year will expand 1.6%, totaling USD128.367 billion, driven largely by the government’s stimulus measures.

To maintain export growth, the value of Thai exports in the remainder of this year must increase at least 2.9% per month, or USD21.664 billion monthly, he added.

Risk factors in the second half include the slowing global economy, an escalating trade war between the US and China, BREXIT, a stronger Baht as well as a possible minimum wage increase

Dr. Aat Pisanwanich, Director of Center for International Trade Studies (CITS) of UTCC

He added that every one-percent increase in minimum wage will lower exports by 0.06%. The proposed minimum wage hike to Bt400 per day is a 30% increase and it could lower Thai exports by 1.8% or by USD4.524 billion.

The Thai Baht has also strengthened, reaching Bt31.60 per US dollar in the first half of this year. It is expected to stay at around Bt30-Bt31 per US dollar this year.

With further US rate cut, the Thai Baht may continue to strengthen

If the US Federal Reserve decides to cut the fed funds rates during the meeting this week, the Thai Baht may strengthen further, reducing the competiveness of Thai exports

Dr. Aat Pisanwanich, Director of Center for International Trade Studies (CITS) of UTCC

The export items seriously affected by a strong Baht are automotive products, electronic parts, rubber and electrical appliances.

He said that the recently-signed free trade agreement between Vietnam and the European Union may also put Thai exports at disadvantage in the EU market.

If the agreement comes into effect in the second half of this year, Thai exports may suffer to the tune of USD680 million. Exports likely to be affected include textiles and apparel, machinery and parts as well as electronics and parts.

If Washington decides to impose additional tariffs on another USD325 billion worth of Chinese goods, and if Beijing retaliates by imposing tariffs on USD60 billion of the US imports, the trade war will escalate. Based on this scenario, Thai exports in 2019 could possibly shrink by 2.6%, Dr. Aat said.

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Economics

BoI plans more efforts to promote BCG economy

National News Bureau of Thailand

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BANGKOK (NNT) – The Board of Investment (BoI) is working with related agencies to rev up promotion of the bio-, circular and green (BCG) economy to help drive growth over the next 5 years.

BoI Secretary-General Duangjai Asawachintachit said the BoI is looking into more business categories for high technology as part of efforts to promote the BCG economy.

She said the government is focused on developing the bio-economy as Thailand has more than 30 million people working in the farm sector, yet most of them remain in poverty.

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Ecommerce

Will Covid-19 unleash a new generation of digital nomads?

Oxford Business Group

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Will Covid-19 unleash a new generation of digital nomads?
– Covid-19 has facilitated the widespread adoption of remote working
– Despite travel restrictions, countries are seeking to attract digital nomads
– Dubai and Mexico have emerged as key destinations for foreign remote workers
– As travel resumes, many anticipate a new wave of roaming digital nomads

With Covid-19 facilitating the widespread adoption of remote working practices, some emerging markets are seeking to attract digital nomads through a series of incentives and special visas.

Despite border closures and travel restrictions resulting from the virus, various countries are stepping up efforts to incentivise the movement of so-called digital nomads – people who work remotely and relocate relatively freely.

For example, in October the Dubai government launched its virtual working programme, an initiative that gives foreign professionals the opportunity to move to the emirate and continue to work remotely in their current jobs.

The one-year programme, launched after Dubai reopened its borders to international tourists in July last year, is designed is attract professionals, entrepreneurs and those working in start-ups.

Given its strong ICT infrastructure and healthy start-up scene, Dubai has been seen as an increasingly attractive option for digital nomads in recent years, with officials marketing the emirate as a place where people can live and work by the beach.

As a further incentive, in January officials began offering free vaccines to those on the programme.

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Economics

BoI Plans More Efforts to Promote BCG Economy

National News Bureau of Thailand

Published

on

logomain

BANGKOK (NNT) – The Board of Investment (BoI) is working with related agencies to rev up promotion of the bio-, circular and green (BCG) economy to help drive growth over the next 5 years.

BoI Secretary-General Duangjai Asawachintachit said the BoI is looking into more business categories for high technology as part of efforts to promote the BCG economy.

She said the government is focused on developing the bio-economy as Thailand has more than 30 million people working in the farm sector, yet most of them remain in poverty.

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