Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) has further revised downward its economic projection for this year to an economic contraction of 7.3 per cent.
Lockdowns triggered by the coronavirus across the globe have led the Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank (EIC SCB) to predict Thailand’s economic expansion to be a negative 7.3 percent.
Tourist arrivals are expected to shrink by 75 per cent or drop to 9.8 million this year from close to 40 million last year, while the value of exports in dollar terms is forecast to contract by 10.4 per cent year on year.
The worst contraction is expected to be seen this quarter at 12.1%, before narrowing to 9.2% in the third quarter and 6.7% in the fourth.
Economic growth shrank 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the deepest contraction since the flood-hit fourth quarter of 2011.
The baht is expected to weaken and fluctuate between Bt31.5 and Bt32 per dollar. The current account will return to surplus at 2.4 per cent of GDP after it hit a deficit in April, EIC said.
The MPC’s minutes from a meeting on May 20, when it cut the policy rate to a record low of 0.50%, stated that the country’s economy would contract by more than expected this year.
Thailand’s parliament approved a 1.9 trillion baht (US$59.7 billion) stimulus package, the kingdom’s biggest-ever cash injection, as Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy is expected to contract by 6 to 7 per cent in 2020.
A local trade association estimates that 6.5 million people will be permanently out of a job by the end of 2020.
So far, more than 20 million have registered for a government handout of 5,000 baht (US$150), while many others say they have been left out of the scheme.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
S&P maintains Thailand’s credit rating at BBB+ with stable outlook
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) maintained Thailand’s credit rating at BBB+ . The global rating firm expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 1.1% this year, with a more optimistic growth at 3.6% per year from 2022 to 2024.
Standard and Poor’s (S&P) maintained Thailand’s credit rating at BBB+ . The global rating firm expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 1.1% this year, with a more optimistic growth at 3.6% per year from 2022 to 2024.(more…)
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