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EXIM Bank forecasts Thai exports growth as high as 4 per cent in 2021

Boris Sullivan

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EXIM Thailand President said that the Bank has forecasted Thai export growth of as high as 4%
in 2021 attributable to a short-term recovery of global trade and economy from a low base of -10%.

Such growth may not be so high as that in 2019 and tends to slow down in the current context and amid the increasing international restrictions.

Coupled with the opportunities for Thai export to new frontiers less affected by the COVID-19, Thai economy tends to recover faster than several countries around the world.

According to IMF, of 195 countries/territories, 60 countries/territories or only around 1/3 of all those countries/territories will record 2021 GDP higher than or equal to that in 2019.

This has reflected the tendency of these countries’ consumer behavior and demand for import of goods to return to normalcy.

Among those countries/territories, nine are top 20 export markets of Thailand which are China, Malaysia, Indonesia, CLMV (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam), South Korea and Taiwan.

Major export goods from Thailand to these markets comprise such industrial products as plastic resin, refined oil, chemicals, cosmetics, soap and skin care products, and such agricultural and processed agricultural goods as fresh fruits, rubber, sugar, tapioca products and beverages.

The latest statistics of Thai export in September 2020 showed a contraction of only 3.9%, the lowest contraction in 5 months. Thai export in the first 9 months of 2020 contracted by 7.3%, lower than those of several peer countries like Japan, South Korea, Singapore and India.

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Photo : Stephen Jaffe/IMF
Photo : Stephen Jaffe/IMF

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