The Delta surge is casting larger clouds over the global recovery and emerging markets are in the thick of it. Despite the ebbing of the coronavirus variant in India, where it first emerged, its spread in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East has steepened the road to recovery in these regions.
Though Delta’s rampage has occasioned only small changes to our forecast for emerging markets as a whole, there are large shifts in the distribution of growth across regions.
Topping the list is a substantial downward adjustment to the outlook for Southeast Asia, which stands in stark contrast to our view of improved prospects in Latin America.
While the emerging economies of Southeast Asia have outperformed their counterparts in Latin America for most of the past two decades, their lead will slide in the next few quarters as Southeast Asian governments clamp down to fight the pandemic’s lingering second and third waves.
- Southeast Asia will relinquish its traditional lead over Latin America this year.
- The open-at-all-costs approach has bolstered Latin American economies.
- Southeast Asia’s key role in global electronics supply chains will drive medium-term gains.
- Commodity-reliant Latin America will see limited growth in jobs and investment.
- Public health and political risks loom in both regions.
LatAm in the lead
The latest data on consumer spending, retail sales, industrial production and economic activity show a smaller hit to growth in Latin America’s largest economies in the first half of the year than we initially expected.
This result stems in large part from leaders’ push to keep economies running even at the expense of adverse health outcomes. The push to reopen at all costs—on display most prominently in Brazil and Mexico but also in play in Chile, Colombia and Peru—underpins upgrades to the forecast in each of the past three forecast cycles.
Improved prospects for Brazil, the third-largest emerging economy after China and India, have nudged the outlook for emerging markets as a whole slightly higher.
Youth unemployment hits new highs in Thailand due to COVID-19 restrictions
BANGKOK, Thailand (ILO news) – Joblessness among young men and women in Thailand has reached a level unseen in recent years due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new brief from the International Labour Organization (ILO).
Thai Chamber of Commerce expects GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2021
With the relaxation of Covid restriction measures and the reopening of Thailand, 200,000 to 300,000 foreign tourists were now expected to visit Thailand this year and contribute to approximately 12 billion baht of income.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s economic forecasting center now expects the Thai economy to expand by 1.5% this year, owing to various government measures to stimulate the economy.(more…)
Thailand bans arrivals from 8 African countries
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the new coronavirus variant to be “of concern” and named it Omicron. The...
Advance booking for Thailand national park visits extended to 60 days
Bangkok, 23 November, 2021 – The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) would like to advise that tourists can now preregister...
China Sustains Huge Ecommerce Development Investment Flows into ASEAN
What Asia Investment Research showed us that there were China outbound investments into several ASEAN markets, led by Singapore, and...
Bangkok Airways resumes Phuket – U-Tapao and Samui – U-Tapao routes in December 2021
Bangkok, 24 November, 2021 – Bangkok Airways has announced that it will resume two more of its domestic services which...
Why Vietnam is Forecast to be the Fastest Growing Internet Economy in Southeast Asia
Since the beginning of the pandemic, customer demand for online purchases has increased dramatically. More than 70 percent of Vietnam’s...