ADB predicts 4.6% growth in Southeast Asia but warns of increasing risks

According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), economic growth in Asia and the Pacific is expected to remain solid, although risks to the outlook are increasing.

Key Takeaways

• The Asian Development Bank has lowered its growth forecast for developing Asia due to the property crisis in China and high interest rates, posing risks to regional economies.
• Weakness in China’s property sector is weighing on regional growth prospects, while global interest rates increase the risk of financial instability.
• The growth forecast for Thailand has been revised upward from 3.3% to 3.5% for the year 2023, and it is expected to remain at 3.7% for the year 2024.

The region’s developing economies are forecast to grow 4.7% this year, a slight downward revision from a previous projection of 4.8%, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2023, released today.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Southeast Asia’s growth is expected to slow down due to a decrease in export demand. The ADB has revised its growth outlook for the region to 4.6% this year, down from the previous projection of 4.7%. Vietnam, which heavily relies on trade, has also seen its growth forecast lowered from 6.5% to 5.8% for this year.

The report highlights that the first half of this year saw positive growth driven by domestic demand and the reopening of the Chinese economy, despite weaker global export demand.

However, weakness in China’s property sector, high global interest rates, supply disruptions, and the risk of droughts and floods from El Niño could impact economic growth. Inflation in the region is expected to be 3.6% this year, down from the earlier projection of 4.2%.

Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is revised downward due to weaker export demand, while South Asia remains the fastest-growing subregion. The report emphasizes the need for governments to address the risks and build resilience. The ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous and sustainable Asia and the Pacific