Asia at risk: climate change and weak infrastructure unleash flooding crisis

Flooding stands as one of the most frequent and devastating natural hazards globally, affecting millions of people and regions across all continents each year.

Key takeaways

• Floods are a common risk globally, affecting multiple regions annually, especially in low-income countries with inadequate infrastructure. 
• Asia is the most vulnerable region, with nine of the ten countries at the highest risk of river flooding located in the continent’s south and east, according to a 2024 report. 
• Climate change could increase by 30% of the population affected by floods if global temperatures rise by 2°C, severely impacting countries like Vietnam, Egypt, and Bangladesh.

The threat of floods is intensifying in Asia, where nine out of the ten countries most at risk of river flooding are located in the south and east of the continent, according to a recent March 2024 Statista survey.

The geographic and climatic characteristics of Southeast Asia, combined with insufficient flood protection infrastructure, make this region especially vulnerable to frequent and severe flooding.

In 2020, the World Bank reported that around 1.47 billion people, or approximately 19% of the global population, faced significant risks of severe flooding from rivers, heavy rainfall, or coastal erosion, with 89% of those affected residing in low- to middle-income countries.

According to the data provided, most of those vulnerable to flooding—close to 1.36 billion—live in South and East Asia, with 329 million in China and 225 million in India, accounting for more than one-third of the world’s flood-prone population.

Rising global temperatures and climate change are worsening this situation. Projections indicate that if global temperatures increase by 2°C, the number of people affected by floods could increase by 30%.

Vietnam, Egypt, and Bangladesh lead the flood risk index with a score of 9.9 out of 10, followed by Thailand (9.8), Iraq (9.6), and Pakistan (9.5), with China and India also among the most affected.

The effects of global warming on flooding in Thailand

This year, Thailand has experienced intense flooding since mid-year, mainly in the northern region and some areas in the south. Total rainfall from January to August was 5% above the annual average, and rainfall between August and October is expected to exceed normal levels.

Bangkok and the central region are projected to receive between 800 and 900 mm of rain, compared to the average of 782 mm, with the northern and central regions, which channel water flow toward the sea, being the most affected.

The economic impacts are severe. This year, floods are estimated to affect 8.6 million rai (equivalent to 1.38 million hectares) of agricultural land in Thailand, with material losses amounting to 3.1 billion baht and agricultural production losses totaling 43.4 billion baht. The total impact could reach 46.5 billion baht, reducing Thailand’s annual GDP by 0.27%.

The outlook for the rest of the rainy season remains uncertain, but infrastructure measures and international aid are expected to play a crucial role in responding to future natural disasters in the region.