# Net Zero 2050: Navigating Thailand’s Power Generation Transition While Balancing the Energy Trilemma

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/environment/297422-net-zero-2050-navigating-thailands-power-generation-transition-while-balancing-the-energy-trilemma
- Published: 2026-04-03T06:26:00+07:00
- Author: News Desk

“Promoting a low-carbon society by announcing that Thailand will achieve the goal
of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (2050) to cope with international trade
and climate change by promoting and supporting the use of clean energy such as solar
energy in communities and government agencies, the use of electric vehicles and 
public transportation, as well as increasing energy efficiency, especially in the
industrial sector.” The Prime Minister delivers the Cabinet’s Policy Statement (
September 29, 2025 at the National Assembly)
The Government’s policy statement reflects
the government’s commitment to support and promote the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions.The power generation sector will be pivotal in helping Thailand achieve
its Net Zero 2050 goals, as electricity production is projected to become the country’s
largest source of greenhouse gas emissions by 2024, contributing 38% of the total
emissions. This article explores the ways in which the power generation sector can
achieve its goals. Net zero 2050 without breaking the “energy trilemma” or energy
balance triangle.

## What is energy trilemma? Why do you care?

**The energy trilemma is a conceptual framework for energy policy design that is
used by energy policymakers around the world**. The design of energy policies must
maintain a balance between 1) sustainability, 2) energy security, and 3) affordability.
For example, if policymakers are primarily focused on achieving sustainability or
security goals. Without taking into account the cost impact, it may increase energy
prices and negatively affect electricity users in both the household and industrial
sectors. In Thailand, this concept has been applied and measured as the Energy Trilemma
Index (ETI).

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According to the data on Thailand’s Energy Balance Index for the period 2016-2024,
which is between 0 (the lowest balance index) and 5 (the largest balance index),
the Environmental Sustainability Index is likely to increase from 3.17 in 2016 to
3.76 in 2024 due to the continuous higher proportion of renewable energy and renewable
energy from the past. Energy security is likely to stabilize from 3.73 in 2016 to
3.76 in 2024 due to the high level of electricity access by the people nationwide
and the high amount of electricity reserves. In terms of affordable prices, the 
index has decreased considerably from 3.46 in 2016 to 2.79 in 2024 due to the increase
in electricity costs in Thailand due to the recent increase in natural gas prices.
This is coupled with the high cost of electricity from the ready payment (money 
paid to power plants even if there is no electricity generation) for power plants
to ensure the stability of the power system, as well as the payment of subsidies
to renewable energy producers to promote sustainability and increase the proportion
of renewable energy. Therefore, it can be seen that focusing on the implementation
of policies in one dimension will also have an impact on other dimensions in the
energy trilemma, for example, accelerating the transition to clean energy may help
increase sustainability, but if there are no supporting measures, it may affect 
the cost of electricity (affordability) and affect the stability of the electricity
system that must be managed by the volatility of renewable energy (Security).** 
In order to ensure that the country’s energy transition is balanced and does not
create a burden on all sectors in the country according to the framework of the 
energy trilemma.**

## Environmental Sustainability: Renewable Energy is the Answer

**Energy Security: Technology and Distribution of Energy Sources An aid that meets
the needs of securityIncreasing electricity from renewable energy is an important
approach to help meet the needs of environmental sustainability**. For example, 
generating electricity from natural gas that emits about 0.48 tonnes of CO2 per 
megawatt hour (t-CO2e/MWh) and from coal that emits up to 0.90 tonnes of CO2 per
megawatt hour (t-CO2e/MWh) is different from electricity generation from renewable
and nuclear power (SMR) with zero greenhouse gas emissions. Promoting new renewable
and clean energy projects such as nuclear power plants (SMRs) is essential to help
the power generation sector reduce greenhouse gases to zero. This is reflected in
the draft Electricity Generation Target Plan to Achieve Net Zero by 2050 prepared
by the Department of Climate Change and Environment and the Research Unit on Sustainable
Energy and Built Environment at Thammasat University. **Renewable energy is expected
to increase from 23% (54 TWh) in 2025 to 58% (327 TWh) in 2050, and in the period
2030-2050, new clean energy technologies will contribute more to electricity generation,
such as hydrogen fuel and nuclear power (SMR), with electricity from nuclear and
hydrogen energy accounting for 6% (16 TWh) in 2030 and increasing to 16% (87 TWh)
in 2050. In Figure 2**, the proportion of electricity from natural gas and coal 
is declining, with electricity from natural gas decreasing from 58% (136 TWh) in
2024 to 26% (146 TWh) in 2050, while coal-fired electricity will decrease from 19%(
45 TWh) in 2024 to zero in 2050. Evaluation of cost-effectiveness and production
costs, including impact studies on communities and the environment.

**Electricity generation from renewable energy will help meet the needs of environmental
sustainability, but there are limitations that reduce the stability of transmission
lines and power grids. Fluctuations in electricity quality from renewable energy
that depend on weather and seasonality. **For example, solar energy can only generate
electricity during daylight hours or about 5-6 hours a day, and can only produce
electricity at peak efficiency during periods of high solar intensity. If there 
are clouds that obscure the sun, such as the rainy season with a lot of clouds, 
it will reduce the efficiency of solar power generation. Because natural gas and
coal can be stored and reserved to generate electricity 24 hours a day, the electricity
obtained is of good quality from the production process that can be controlled to
ensure the stability **of electricity. However, with today’s advanced technology,**
SCB EIC found that there are at least three types of technologies that can help 
solve the problem of grid instability caused by renewable energy generation. As 
follows:

**1) Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) technology: **This technology helps to
store electricity from renewable energy produced at different times so that it can
be used throughout the day or during times of high electricity demand. For example,
in many countries that use BESS to increase electricity security, such as the Waratah
Super Battery project in Australia that installed up to 700 MW of BESS to increase
the stability of the power grid by increasing electricity from renewable energy 
instead of decommissioning coal-fired power plants in New South Wales, and the Henan
grid-side project in China that uses BESS for backup power during peak load times
and emergency response, etc. In Thailand, BESS has already been applied to work 
in tandem with electricity generation from solar farms, such as the Solar + BESS
project with a power sale agreement of 121 MW of GULF Group companies that have 
started generating electricity and selling it to ELECTRIC in 2025.

**2) Smart grid technology **that will work with renewable energy and battery power
plants to increase “electrical stability”, especially in regional electricity consumption
or areas remote from the main power grid. For example, in Australia. It is the country
with the most smart grid installations in the world, both experimentally and commercially,
such as the Western Downs + Broken Hill project with a total capacity of more than
320 MW. In order to strengthen the stability of the power grid by increasing electricity
from solar farms in Queensland, etc.

**3) Demand Response (DR) technology **will help to visualize the overall picture
of electricity demand and electricity production in various sources (Supply), from
large-scale power plants down to household electricity generation from solar rooftops,
so that they can participate in electricity generation to meet demand. For example,
the DR installation project in 45 states in the U.S. provides real-time electricity
demand awareness, allowing the government to manage electricity production and distribution
to meet demand and reduce energy losses in the grid.

**Increasing the proportion of electricity generation from renewable energy must
be done in parallel with diversifying energy sources. **This is to reduce the risk
in the event that electricity generation from renewable energy is problematic and
reduce the risk of the country’s supply and import of fossil fuels. For example:

 * Sourcing fuel from a variety of producers and procurement plans to reduce the
   risk of energy imports, such as: Providing natural gas from multiple suppliers
   and increasing domestic natural gas production will reduce the risk of fluctuating
   natural gas import prices and affect the cost of electricity generation.
 * Develop a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) nuclear power plant as a baseload power
   generation source as a new alternative to natural gas and coal power plants in
   the long term.

**Strengthening energy security is an important priority for countries **such as
Singapore and Japan to have a fuel reserve storage strategy to reduce the risk of
fluctuating energy import prices and promote the use of hydrogen as a substitute
for natural gas in the long term and in emergencies.

**Affordable prices (energy wealth) – High electricity costs drag on energy wealth.
Therefore, it must be managed in parallel with the investment in new technology.**

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**Electricity costs are likely to increase due to the adoption of new technologies
with high production costs. Although it meets the needs of security and sustainability,
it will affect the wealth that is the cost of energy for the country. **Although
the cost of generating electricity from renewable energy tends to decrease and is
lower than the cost of generating electricity from fossil fuels, investment in new
technologies to make the power system stable and sustainable. This will increase
the cost of electricity production. For example, according to the draft PDP 2024
Power Generation Capacity Development Plan, the electricity bill is likely to increase
from 3.76 baht per unit in 2030 to 3.98 baht per unit in 2037 due to the introduction
of new clean energy technologies for electricity generation, such as the introduction
of hydrogen as a fuel to replace natural gas in electricity generation in 2030, 
the investment in the BESS energy storage system for the power grid and the start
of use in 2032, and the start of nuclear power generation (SMR) in 2037.** The government
must take measures to accommodate the increase in electricity bills in the future
because the increase in electricity costs will affect many dimensions, including
the cost of living of the people and business costs, as well as the country’s competitiveness.**
If you compare the electricity tariff for Thailand’s large-scale industrial sector(
group with investment plans in Thailand) with other countries in the ASEAN region
by 2025, it will be found that Thailand has an average electricity tariff of about
3.55 baht per unit, which is the fourth highest among the 10 countries in the ASEAN
group. If Thailand’s electricity bill tends to increase in the next period, it will
reduce the country’s competitiveness, and the government is the main agency that
must manage the cost of electricity production appropriately** during this transition.
It is believed that from the Net zero goal, Thailand must increase clean energy 
technology and make electricity bills tend to rise. The government can alleviate
this problem through at least three actions:**

1) Supply domestic fuel in a higher proportion to reduce the import of high-priced
fuels, such as the supply and production of natural gas in the Gulf of Thailand.
Procurement of alternative fuels such as biogas for use in natural gas power plants,
etc.

2) Purchase electricity from renewable energy at a lower price in line with the 
trend of declining electricity production costs in the future, such as solar energy,
which is expected to reduce the cost of electricity generation to 1.1 baht per unit
in 2030 and to 0.7 baht per unit in 2050, etc.

3) Enable Direct PPA (pilot project to trade electricity from renewable energy directly
between data center operators and power producers) and Third Party Assessment (TPA)(
allowing third parties or power producers to connect electricity to the power grid).
This will not affect the electricity bills of the public and other businesses due
to the government’s charging for power grid services by separating the costs arising
from the investment in the new power grid in the areas where the new industrial 
groups are investing. Such an approach will be able to meet the needs of new industries
that need clean electricity to achieve Net zero, which will encourage investment
while not affecting the country’s overall electricity bill.

**After all, Thailand is moving towards Net Zero 2050, which will affect all three
dimensions of the energy trilemma: sustainability, security, and prosperity. But
the transition also requires investment to strengthen the stability of the power
system. Whether it is BESS investment, strengthening network management capabilities,
and SMR development, these are all factors that may affect electricity costs and
inevitably affect energy wealth. Therefore, SCB EIC has proposed three ways to help
revive energy wealth. These approaches will help Thailand pursue a balanced energy
transition between sustainability, security, and prosperity, while maintaining the
country’s competitiveness amid increasingly fierce business competition and rapidly
increasing demand for clean energy in the future.**

**Published in the Journal of Banking and Finance, the financial tidbit column for
March 2026.**

Source : [SCB EIC brief / Net zero 2050 : ธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าไทยจะเปลี่ยนผ่านอย่างไรไม่ให้เสียสมดุล Energy trilemma? | SCBEIC](https://www.scbeic.com/th/detail/product/10053?rand=153441)