The Bank of Thailand expects a continued economic recovery, based on positive indicators last month, particularly for exports and tourism.
However, any political unrest will be taken into account for next month’s forecast review.
Suchart Sakkankosone, senior director of the BOT’s Domestic Economy Department, said political movements would be closely monitored to determine whether they were affecting the domestic economy.
Central-bank figures show export value increased 31.4 per cent to US$13.63 billion (Bt450 billion) last month, while international tourist arrivals numbered 1.61 million.
The Private Consumption Index also continued its climb towards pre-crisis levels, thanks to higher farm prices and employment and the government's stimulus package.
Private investment was positive for the eighth consecutive month, up 1.4 per cent from last December and 5.2 per cent year on year.
January’s headline inflation expanded 4.1 per cent year on year and 3.5 per cent month on month, due to higher energy and food prices. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose only 0.6 per cent year on year and 0.3 per cent month on month. Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) director-general Sathit Rangkasiri believes Thailand's first-quarter performance will show an improvement over the fourth quarter's 5.8-per-cent growth rate.
However, he cautioned his optimism was based on assumptions of no political violence. The FPO will review the economic forecast next month.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
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