Extreme winter air pollution in Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plain is projected to intensify due to crop residue burning, coal-based power generation, and unfavorable weather conditions, posing serious risks to public health and hindering tourism.
Key View
- We expect extreme winter air pollution in Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plain to worsen over the coming years as key drivers, including crop burning, coal power generation and weather conditions, will likely intensify.
- In addition to its negative impact on public health, we highlight the adverse impact on the travel and tourism sector.
Coal will continue to supply more than half of India’s primary energy consumption in 2033, driving air pollution in Delhi and the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Coal-fired plants will account for around 66% of electricity generation in 2033, while coal use in industry will grow as steel and cement production expands. We expect coal-fired power capacity to increase through to 2028, in line with the National Energy Plan for 2022-2027.
As shown in the map below, many plants that are planned or under construction are located in areas already burdened with high levels of air pollution. To fight air pollution, as of January 2023, the Commission for Air Quality Management requires the complete elimination of coal and unapproved fuels in all sectors, including industrial and commercial but excluding thermal power plants inside the National Capital Region. There are currently eight cement plants inside the NCR that are affected by the ban. At the same time, there are plans to build or expand two coal power stations inside or just outside the region, which would add above 2100MW of coal power capacity within the vicinity of New Delhi and undermine the efforts to curb industrial emissions from coal consumption that would affect the city.
India’s battle against air pollution is escalating, with forecasts indicating that the situation will worsen in the coming years. Urban centers like New Delhi consistently rank among the most polluted cities in the world, with a toxic blend of emissions from vehicles, industrial activity, and construction dust contributing to the dire air quality. According to environmental researchers, a combination of rapid industrialization, urbanization, and inadequate regulatory measures has made it challenging to curb emissions effectively.
The effects of this extreme air pollution are far-reaching, impacting public health and the environment. Respiratory diseases, heart conditions, and other health complications are on the rise, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly. Furthermore, the rising pollution levels threaten agricultural productivity, deteriorate biodiversity, and contribute to climate change, creating a vicious cycle that remains difficult to break.
Addressing India’s air quality crisis requires a multifaceted approach. Improved policies aimed at reducing emissions, investing in renewable energy, and promoting public transportation can help mitigate pollution levels. However, urgent action and sustained commitment from both policymakers and citizens are essential to avert the anticipated deterioration of air quality and protect the health of millions.
Read More
