Thailand Projects Agricultural GDP Growth at 1.8-2.8% by 2025

Thailand’s agriculture minister forecasts 1.8-2.8% GDP growth by 2025, advancing seven strategies to tackle challenges like climate change and geopolitical conflicts amid current economic pressures and production costs.

Key Points

• Challenges and Economic Projections: Thailand’s agriculture faces challenges such as climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and trade barriers. While the agricultural GDP is expected to grow by 1.8-2.8% in 2025, a contraction of 1.1% occurred in 2024 due to adverse weather conditions and rising production costs.
• Growth Factors: Anticipated rainfall from La Niña and overall economic growth driven by consumption, tourism, and exports are expected to support agricultural growth. Additionally, increased global demand for food products and supportive government policies may enhance productivity and innovation.
• Development Strategies: The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing seven strategies, including disaster preparedness, agricultural insurance, modern technology adoption, sustainable farming practices, high-value product branding, global monitoring tools, and regulatory adjustments to improve competitiveness and ensure sustainable livelihoods for farmers.

Professor Dr. Narumon Pinyosinwat, Thailand’s Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, has outlined a forecast for the agricultural GDP to grow by 1.8-2.8% in 2025, despite recent setbacks in the sector. According to the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE), the agricultural economy contracted by 1.1% in 2024 due to adverse conditions impacting crops, fisheries, and services, although livestock and forestry saw positive growth. Key challenges included severe weather patterns exacerbated by climate change, such as droughts from El Niño and consequent flooding from La Niña, which negatively affected agricultural outputs in critical regions.

The agricultural sector faced multiple pressures in 2024, notably from climate variability, heightened geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and escalating production costs for essential inputs like fuel and fertilizers. These factors threaten Thailand’s competitiveness in global markets, particularly when its primary trade partners, including the U.S. and China, are experiencing their own economic difficulties. The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth rates at 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, with various regional economies such as the U.S. and ASEAN-5 expected to perform modestly.

To drive recovery and growth, the ministry has proposed seven strategic initiatives. These focus on enhancing resilience against natural disasters, promoting agricultural insurance, leveraging technology for efficiency, adopting sustainable farming practices through the Bio-Circular-Green model, and developing high-value agricultural products. Additionally, the strategies emphasize the utilization of big data for market insights and adapting trade regulations to strengthen competitiveness. The ministry aims to foster sustainable livelihoods for over 30 million agricultural stakeholders by ensuring adequate food production and economic stability, encapsulated in the motto, “Enough to eat, enough to use, and sufficient income.”