As of late 2025, the Thai stock market is entering a “wait-and-see” phase. While the SET Index has shown recent signs of recovery, experts and financial institutions like SCB EIC and Krungsri Research are forecasting a complex 2026 defined by sluggish GDP growth and significant global trade shifts.
Bangkok, Thailand – December 17, 2025 – The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) faces a complex outlook as it approaches the close of 2025, grappling with persistent global economic uncertainties and evolving domestic policy landscapes. Investors are closely monitoring inflation trends and geopolitical developments that could significantly influence market performance in the coming year.
Key Performance Forecasts
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about a recovery in the latter half of 2026, though the immediate outlook remains tempered.2
- Target Levels: CGS International (CGSI) has set a year-end target for the SET Index at 1,400 points for 2026.3
- Growth Projections: Thailand’s GDP is expected to slow to between 1.5% and 2.0% in 2026 (down from roughly 2.0%–2.2% in 2025). Some estimates suggest this could be the lowest growth in three decades, excluding major crisis years.
- The “K-Shaped” Recovery: While large-cap electronics and tech-related firms may benefit from global AI demand, SMEs and lower-income consumers continue to struggle with high debt.
Global & Domestic Headwinds
The market faces a “triple threat” of external trade pressures, domestic debt, and political transitions.
The “Trump 2.0” & Trade War Effect
The most significant headwind is the anticipated impact of U.S. reciprocal tariffs (projected at 19% for many Thai goods).4
- Export Contraction: After a front-loaded surge in 2025 (where firms rushed orders ahead of tariffs), Thai exports are risked to contract by 1.5% in 2026.
- China Overcapacity: Thailand is facing an influx of cheap manufactured goods from China, which is struggling with its own domestic slowdown and looking to offload industrial overcapacity.5
Domestic Fragility
- Private Debt: Household debt remains a massive anchor on the economy, sitting near 86–87% of GDP.6 This limits consumer spending and forces banks to remain extremely cautious with lending.
- Climate & Natural Disasters: Recent catastrophic floods in Southern Thailand (late 2025) have already caused billions in revenue loss, which will weigh on the 2026 fiscal start.7
Structural Reforms & Market Readiness
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the government are taking active steps to “Reinvent Thailand” and restore investor confidence.8
| Focus Area | Strategy for 2026 |
| ESG Transition | SET is moving to the FTSE Russell ESG Scores framework in 2026 to align with global standards and attract foreign institutional capital. |
| IPO Revamp | To stop the “brain drain” of Thai companies listing in Hong Kong or Singapore, the SET is shortening the IPO approval process and expanding cornerstone investor limits from 25% to 40%. |
| Monetary Policy | Analysts expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates to 1.0% in early 2026 to lower financing costs and ease pressure on the Thai Baht. |
| Political Clarity | The market is pricing in an “Election Rally” for the second half of 2026, assuming political clarity emerges following upcoming elections. |
Sector Watch: Winners and Losers
- Potential Winners: Data Centers, Electronics (AI-driven), and “Future Food” sectors continue to see strong Board of Investment (BOI) applications.9
- Sectors Under Pressure: Automotive (EV competition), Traditional Manufacturing, and Real Estate (due to high interest rates and oversupply).10
A Note on the Baht: The Thai Baht’s strength in late 2025 has hurt the competitiveness of Thai tourism and exports.11 Market participants are watching for BoT intervention to ensure the currency doesn’t further disadvantage Thai goods against regional rivals like Vietnam.
“We are seeing a bifurcated market,” commented a senior analyst from Krungsri Securities. “Sectors tied to tourism and domestic consumption are showing encouraging signs, but export-oriented industries are still navigating a challenging international environment. Geopolitical stability will be a critical factor in investor confidence throughout 2026.”
Recent data from the Bank of Thailand indicates a gradual pickup in economic activity, supported by government initiatives aimed at stimulating investment and infrastructure development. However, the pace of recovery is keenly debated, with some economists urging greater fiscal stimulus to counter global economic slowdown fears.
As the Thai stock market transitions from a growth focus to a “Cash Cow” market in 2026, analysts are increasingly pointing toward high-dividend defensive plays and tech-driven “new economy” sectors. With the Bank of Thailand expected to lower the policy rate to 1.0% in early 2026, yield-seeking investors are looking at stocks that offer significantly higher returns than government bonds.
Top Recommended Stock Sectors
Analysts highlight four primary areas that are expected to anchor the Thai economy through the 2026 headwinds.
- Digital Infrastructure & Electronics: This is the most resilient “growth” sector. As AI demand surges globally, Thailand’s Board of Investment (BOI) is seeing trillion-baht applications for Data Centers, Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs), and Semiconductors.
- Health & Wellness: Driven by an aging population and a rebound in “medical tourism,” this sector is viewed as a defensive heavyweight. Focus is shifting toward long-stay health travel and personalized wellness.
- Banking & Finance: Despite slow GDP growth, major banks are maintaining strong capital cushions. Lower interest rates in 2026 are expected to ease the debt-repayment burden on borrowers, potentially improving asset quality for large lenders.
- Renewable Energy & BCG (Bio-Circular-Green): Firms transitioning to clean electricity and “Future Food” (alternative proteins/high-value agri-tech) are receiving the highest tier of government tax incentives (up to 13 years of CIT exemption).
Top Dividend Picks for 2026
With the SET Index entering a “Cash Cow” phase, financial institutions (Merchant Partners, DBS, and CGSI) are highlighting specific companies with robust yields.
| Company | Sector | Expected Yield (2026) | Analyst Notes |
| TISCO | Banking | 7.5% – 7.8% | Widely considered the “Dividend Fortress”; focuses on high-quality growth. |
| SCB / KTB | Banking | 6.0% – 7.0% | Both banks are in a dividend “competition,” paying out a high percentage of profits. |
| BBL | Banking | ~5.4% | Target price set at 170 THB; cited for strong balance sheets and low P/BV (0.53x). |
| PTT | Energy | ~5.0%+ | Seen as “extremely cheap” at 30 THB, holding roughly 400 billion THB in cash. |
| CPALL | Retail | Moderate | Recommended as a “Large-Cap Value” play to capture the domestic recovery. |
| BDMS | Healthcare | Defensive | A core pick for medical tourism and wellness trends. |
Strategizing Your Entry
Timing is critical for dividend hunting in the Thai market. Historically, two “Golden Periods” emerge for accumulation:
- June: Following the first half-year earnings and mid-year dividend announcements.
- November – December: Just before the year-end “Santa Rally” and ahead of the major spring dividend season (XD dates).
Risk Warning
- Real Estate: Analysts are currently flagging the Property Sector as a “yield trap.” While yields look high, weak demand and high household debt mean companies may face cash flow issues, potentially leading to dividend cuts or stock price erosion.
- SMEs: Small-cap stocks remain vulnerable to the “K-shaped” recovery; experts suggest sticking to SET100 or SETHD (High Dividend Index) constituents for 2026.
Looking ahead, the Thai stock market’s trajectory will likely be shaped by the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the broader recovery of the global economy. Key events to watch include upcoming corporate earnings reports and any pronouncements from the Bank of Thailand regarding interest rate policies. Investors will also be keenly observing trade negotiations and the resolution of ongoing geopolitical tensions that could impact regional and global trade flows.
Sources:
- Reuters
- Bank of Thailand
