# US Oil Boom Threatens OPEC+ Market Share

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/markets/commodities/181864-us-oil-boom-threatens-opec-market-share
- Published: 2024-12-20T11:46:34+07:00
- Author: Abhishek Prakash

**OPEC+ worries that a potential increase in US oil production under Trump might
erode its market share, hinder efforts to support prices, and challenge plans to
raise output.**

## Key Takeaways

 1. OPEC+ is concerned about the impact of the US oil boom on its market share and 
    prices.
 2. Rising US oil production and OPEC+ supply cuts are key factors driving this concern.
 3. The market share competition and price pressure from the US oil boom could challenge
    OPEC+’s ability to maintain its desired price levels.
 4. The outlook for the oil and gas industry is uncertain, with potential implications
    for global economics and trade patterns.

## OPEC+ Concerns Over US Oil Production

OPEC+ is worried about potential growth in US oil production with Donald Trump possibly
returning to the White House. Delegates fear this increase might threaten their 
market share and efforts to stabilize oil prices. Despite controlling nearly half
of the global oil supply, OPEC+ delayed plans to raise output until 2026 due to 
weak demand and rising US production. The group is cautious about Trump’s proposals
to deregulate the energy sector, which could drive oil demand but also increase 
US output, impacting OPEC+’s influence.

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## Thailand’s Economy

Thailand, a significant oil importer, is particularly vulnerable to changes in the
global oil market. A decline in OPEC+’s market share could lead to increased competition
for Thai oil imports, potentially driving up prices and affecting the country’s 
economy. Thailand’s economy is heavily reliant on trade and exports, and fluctuations
in oil prices can have a significant impact on its balance of payments and inflation.

## US Output and Market Dynamics

The rise in US oil production may challenge OPEC+’s strategy to boost output in 
2025 without decreasing prices, affecting members reliant on oil revenue. US output
previously increased by 11% between 2022 and 2024, lessening OPEC+’s global share.
OPEC predicts a 2.3% rise in US supply next year, while the IEA estimates 3.5%. 
However, some analysts doubt significant growth under Trump, as new developments
take time and profitability drives production. Bob McNally highlights the US’s lack
of spare capacity, emphasizing the need for strategic planning.

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This dynamic could lead to heightened competition between US producers and OPEC+
members, particularly as global demand fluctuates. Analysts warn that if US shale
production surges, it could undermine OPEC+’s ability to manage prices effectively.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and shifting energy policies under the Biden administration
may further complicate the landscape. OPEC+ faces the challenge of balancing its
output strategy while maintaining cohesion among its members, some of whom are already
grappling with economic pressures.

If US production growth outpaces expectations, OPEC+ may need to reconsider its 
2025 plans to avoid oversupply and a subsequent price slump. Energy markets will
also be closely watching the role of renewable energy and climate targets, as these
factors increasingly influence investment in fossil fuels. The interplay between
traditional oil producers and emerging energy technologies will likely shape the
industry’s trajectory in the coming years.