Asian equities plunged on Monday as mounting tensions between the United States and Iran rattled global energy markets. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo fell 3.6%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped nearly 6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai’s Composite Index lost 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. Investors fled risk assets amid fears of prolonged disruption to oil and gas supplies.
At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass. Since late February, the strait has been effectively blocked following US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Washington has threatened further military action unless Tehran reopens the passage, while Iran has vowed retaliation against regional energy and desalination infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns the standoff could trigger the worst energy crisis in decades, drawing comparisons to the 1970s oil shocks and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, compounding inflationary pressures across Asia.
Regional economies are particularly vulnerable:
- Japan relies on the Middle East for 95% of crude imports, with 70% transiting Hormuz.
- South Korea sources about 70% of its crude from the region.
- India depends on the Gulf for 58% of imports, though Russian supplies provide partial relief.
- China imports roughly half its crude from the Middle East, with Iran alone supplying 11%.
LNG disruptions are also hitting South Asia hard. Pakistan and Bangladesh face acute shortages, with reserves covering only two to three weeks of consumption.
The escalating conflict underscores Asia’s heavy reliance on Gulf energy and highlights the fragility of global supply chains. Analysts warn that prolonged instability could force governments to consider rationing, accelerate diversification of energy sources, and intensify inflationary pressures across the region.
