# Middle East Turmoil Drives Prolonged Natural Gas Surge, Keeping Electricity Costs High for 2+ Years

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/markets/commodities/301856-middle-east-turmoil-drives-prolonged-natural-gas-surge-keeping-electricity-costs-high-for-2-years
- Published: 2026-04-21T11:06:53+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

**The Middle East conflict has sharply increased LNG prices by disrupting supply,
especially from Qatar, driving up global and Thai electricity costs. Thailand should
adopt flexible tariffs, boost clean energy, and improve efficiency.**

## Impact of Middle East Conflict on LNG Prices

The Middle East conflict has caused liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices to surge 
by over 91%, rising from USD 10.7 to USD 20.5 per million BTU between February and
April. This spike was triggered by supply disruptions, particularly damage to Qatar’s
Ras Laffan gas field, which accounts for 17% of its capacity, reducing global LNG
supply by 3%. Recovery of this supply is expected to take 3–5 years. Persistent 
disruptions and high demand in Asia and Europe will keep LNG prices elevated, though
increased U.S. production and alternative energy adoption should help balance supply
and demand after two years.

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## Rising Electricity Costs and Tariff Implications

Thailand faces higher electricity generation costs due to increased LNG prices and
supply disruptions. Imported natural gas costs push electricity prices up to around
THB 4.9 per unit by the end of 2026. However, maintaining EGAT’s debt at THB 36 
billion could moderate tariff rises to approximately THB 4.0 per unit in 2026–2027.
Prolonged conflict or further damage could drive LNG prices to USD 36.1 per million
BTU and tariffs near THB 5.7 per unit. Flexible tariff adjustments and energy management
will be crucial to controlling costs.

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## Recommendations for Government and Consumers

The government should implement both short- and long-term strategies to manage electricity
costs, including gradually adjusting tariffs, increasing energy imports, enhancing
renewable energy capacity, and exploring small modular nuclear reactors. Public 
communication about energy costs is essential. Households and businesses must improve
electricity efficiency by using energy-saving devices, avoiding peak usage, and 
investing in rooftop solar systems. These efforts will help reduce dependence on
LNG and strengthen Thailand’s energy security sustainably.

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