# Thailand’s Q1 GDP Accelerates to 2.8% as Exports Surge, Outpacing ASEAN Peers

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/news/308554-thailands-q1-gdp-accelerates-to-2-8-as-exports-surge-outpacing-asean-peers
- Published: 2026-05-19T17:52:00+07:00
- Author: Fang Zhang

Thailand’s economy gained momentum in the first quarter of 2026, expanding **2.8%
year‑on‑year** and outperforming several Southeast Asian peers despite rising geopolitical
and energy‑related pressures.

The latest data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)
shows growth picking up from **2.5%** in the previous quarter and exceeding market
expectations of 2.2% .

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The stronger‑than‑expected performance was driven by **robust goods exports, increased
investment, and higher government consumption** . Exports surged **15.5%** from 
a year earlier—nearly double the pace of the previous quarter—supported largely 
by high‑tech electronic products, according to NESDC secretary‑general Danucha Pichayanan.

## **Regional Context: Thailand Bucks the Slowdown**

While Thailand gained speed, several ASEAN economies saw growth cool. The Philippines
posted its weakest expansion in five years at **2.8%** , while Vietnam, Malaysia
and Singapore all recorded slower growth compared with the previous quarter amid
rising inflation pressures Current page. Indonesia was a notable exception, with
growth edging up to **5.6%** on the back of increased government spending .

## **Tourism Hit by Iran Conflict**

Despite the headline GDP improvement, Thailand is already feeling the early economic
impact of the Iran conflict. **Air transport disruptions and higher ticket prices**
have weighed on tourism, with foreign arrivals falling **2.4%** in Q1 to 9.3 million
visitors . Analysts warn that prolonged instability in the Middle East will continue
to push up **energy and living costs**, dampening domestic consumption .

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## **Inflation Rebounds on High Fuel Prices**

After a full year of declining prices, Thailand’s consumer inflation jumped to **
2.9% in April**, driven by elevated fuel costs linked to damaged oil infrastructure
in the Middle East . NESDC officials cautioned that high global oil prices could
persist for several years, posing risks to both the Thai and global economies.

## **Government Moves to Cushion Households and SMEs**

In response to rising living costs, the government issued an emergency decree to
borrow **400 billion baht (US$12.2 billion)** to support vulnerable groups and subsidize
essential expenses . Part of the funding will also provide liquidity to small and
medium‑sized enterprises to prevent bankruptcies amid tightening conditions Current
page.

## **Outlook**

The NESDC maintained its **2026 GDP forecast at 1.5%–2.5%**, citing ongoing risks
from global energy markets and geopolitical tensions . Other ASEAN economies have
issued similar warnings, though Indonesia—being a net energy exporter—is expected
to weather the energy shock more effectively Current page.