Thailand September Exports Surge 24% on Electronics and US Demand

Export value in September reached US$38,438.9 million, a strong growth of 24.0%, continuing the 24.3% expansion in August. The September export growth exceeded initial estimates (SCB EIC estimated 16.3% and the Reuters Poll median estimate was 17.9%). Seasonally adjusted export value grew by 3.9% month-on-month (MOM_SA) . Overall, Thailand’s export value for the first nine months of 2026 expanded by a high 19.5%.

Exports in September continued to receive strong momentum from electronics products and the US market.

1. Exports of electronic goods expanded by a high of 66.3%, accelerating from 54.2% in the previous month and marking the 30th consecutive month of growth. This product group continues to be driven by the upward cycle of electronics, as well as the expanding global trend of investment in the electronics and data center industries. Thailand is part of the supply chain for AI-related products, especially intermediate goods, as reflected in the growth of exports of these products to 15 major trading partners (accounting for 94% of Thailand’s total electronics exports this month), which have seen growth in every market for the second consecutive month. Electronic goods contributed a 15% increase in total global cross-growth (CTG) for Thailand’s exports this month, contributing to an overall growth of 24%.

2. Exports to the US market in September reached a record high of US$10 billion, totaling US$10.2 billion, a strong growth of 50.1%, accelerating from 48.7% in the previous month. Exports of electronics to the US continued to grow strongly at 68.2%, a product group not yet subject to additional US tariffs. Other product groups also saw strong growth at 32.5%, reflecting strong demand for Thai products in the US market. This may partly be due to accelerated exports of Thai goods to the US amidst uncertainty surrounding additional tariffs under Section 301. Exports to the US contributed an 11% increase (CTG) to the overall 24% growth in September.

3. Exports to Asian markets expanded strongly by 21.8%, accelerating from the previous month’s 12.4% growth. This was driven by strong growth in exports of electronic goods such as fax machines, telephones, computer equipment and components, and printed circuit boards, which increased by 190.9%, 57.5%, and 50.6% respectively. This was due to increased demand for goods in the AI ​​supply chain for investment in data centers by key trading partners in the region, including ASEAN 5, Hong Kong, and China. Exports to the Asian region contributed 11.3% to the overall CTG (Competitive Global Growth) growth for the month, contributing to a total growth of 24%.

Import value in September grew faster than export value, and was twice as high as import value in August.

Thailand’s import value in September reached US$44,295.56 million, a strong growth of 50.4% , more than double the 25.1% growth in the previous month and exceeding estimates (SCB EIC’s estimate of 31.4% and the Reuters Poll median of 31.3%) . Overall, Thailand’s import value for the first nine months of 2026 showed a strong growth of 37.8% (Figures 3 and 4).

Imports of capital goods, raw materials, and semi-finished products from China and Taiwan continue to rise, while energy imports are expanding rapidly and diversifying risk away from the Middle East.

(1) Capital goods imports expanded by a high 92.3%, accelerating significantly from 33.9% in August. This category contributed to the 24.2% (CTG) increase in September imports, almost half of the overall growth of 50.4%, particularly imports from China and Taiwan, which expanded by 67.6% and 819%, respectively, accounting for 44.9% and 14.9% of the total value of Thailand’s capital goods imports this month. The main imported goods were computers, equipment and components, which expanded by a high 317.1%, accelerating from 57.2% in the previous month, as well as electrical machinery and components, which also expanded significantly. This high growth in capital goods imports is consistent with the high growth in private sector investment in recent months, especially investment in electronics and digital industries such as data centers, while Thailand’s production is limited.

(2) Raw materials and semi-finished goods expanded by a high 41.2%, accelerating from 21.3% in the previous month. Imports in this category contributed to the 18.3% overall growth in September’s capital goods (CTG) from a total growth of 50.4%, especially imports from China and Taiwan, which expanded by 45% and 55%, respectively, accounting for 25.1% and 23.6% of Thailand’s total capital goods imports this month. The main imported goods were electrical and electronic equipment and components, which expanded by a high 69.5% (CTG = 11.6%), especially circuit boards, which expanded by 68.5% (CTG = 9.8%), consistent with the continued high growth in the value of electronic goods exports. Meanwhile, the value of gold imports expanded by a high 113.1%, accelerating from 35.7% in the previous month (CTG = 3.4%).

(3) Fuel products expanded by a high 45.7%, accelerating slightly from 42.8% in August. Imports in this category contributed to the 5.6% increase in Thailand’s total imports this month (CTG), from a combined growth of 50.4%. This was due to the high expansion of imports of natural gas, petroleum and crude oil by 125.2% and 32.6% (CTG: 2.8% and 2.5%) following the rise in global energy prices due to the war. Imports of natural gas, petroleum from the US, Australia and Congo expanded by 805.1%, 100% and 311.1% respectively, replacing imports from Qatar which contracted by -48.4%, a continuous contraction for 5 months. Meanwhile, imports of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates contracted by -31.5% and -2.2% respectively, but imports from Argentina, Brazil and Nigeria increased. This reflects Thailand’s diversification of oil import sources away from the Middle East amidst the war in the region which is likely to be prolonged and highly uncertain.

Thailand’s trade balance (customs system) deficit in September widened to US$5,856.6 million, up from US$2,482.7 million in the previous month (SCB EIC forecast -2,640 and the Reuters Poll median was -1,830). Overall, Thailand’s cumulative trade deficit for the first nine months of this year is US$43,693.9 million.

Looking ahead, Thailand’s exports and imports are expected to continue expanding, but several risks still need to be monitored

Thailand’s international trade is expected to continue expanding in the near future, especially in digital and electronic related products.

(1) The direction of global trade continues to expand and is better than expected. The WTO has revised its estimate of global trade volume in 2026 and 2027 upwards to 3.9% and 4.1% from 1.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the IMF has revised its estimate of global trade and services volume up to 4.6% and 4.7% from 2.8% and 3.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, due to the high resilience of the global economy despite the prolonged war and the support from increasing demand and investment in AI products worldwide, with Asia being the main driver.

(2) Global industrial sector data continued to expand. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to expand for 14 months at 53.0, the highest in 55 months. Meanwhile, the sub-index Exports Order, reflecting future international trade demand, was at 51.9, expanding for 3 months and the highest in 62 months.

(3) Fast data on e-commerce from abroad. South Korea’s export figures for the first 25 days of October 2026 showed a high growth of 77.1% YOY, especially for electronic goods such as computers and semiconductors, which grew by as much as 251.9% and 263.5% respectively, reflecting the continued high demand for electronic goods.

The growth of imports and exports next year is likely to slow significantly due to the high base effect this year. In the first nine months of 2026, exports and imports expanded strongly by 19.5% and 37.8%, respectively. Furthermore , several downside risks exist in the near future that need monitoring, including: 1) Additional import tariffs from the US under Sec. 301 (possibly announced within 1-2 months) ; 2) The US-China trade war could escalate if the trade truce is not extended after the January 10, 2027 deadline ; 3) The potential for escalation of conflict in the Middle East, impacting oil prices, freight costs, trade routes, and inflation, thus suppressing global demand ; 4) The risk of stagnation in global AI investment, affecting demand for AI-related exports, a key export product for Asian countries like Thailand; and 5) Higher long-term interest rates globally and currency volatility.