Connect with us

Banking

ADB sees Asia growth at 6.2%, but Thailand below 3%

Developing Asia will extend its steady economic growth in 2014 says a news ADB report, but Thailand could drag behind with a growth dampened under 3% as political crisis lingers.

Olivier Languepin

Published

on

Developing Asia will extend its steady economic growth in 2014 as higher demand from recovering advanced economies will be dampened somewhat by moderating growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

ADB’s flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2014 (ADO), released today, forecasts developing Asia will achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.2% in 2014, and 6.4% in 2015. The region grew 6.1% in 2013.

adb2014

Developing Asia will extend its steady economic growth in 2014 says a news ADB report, but Thailand could drag behind with a growth under 3% as political crisis lingers.

Thaland GDP could stall below 2% if the political crisis lingers

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.9 per cent this year in light of the political impasse.

Luxmon Attapich, ADB senior economist, said yesterday that the initial predicted growth at 4.5 per cent was lowered to the same as last year based on the assumption that the new government will take office and work in full force in the second half of the year.

GDP will plunge below 2 per cent if the administrative vacuum continues until the third quarter, she said, adding that the political stalemate has diminished confidence among tourists, consumers and the private sector, affecting consumption and investment.

“Developing Asia is successfully navigating a challenging global economic landscape and is well positioned to grow steadily over the next two years,”

said ADB President Takehiko Nakao.

“Risks to the outlook have eased compared to the recent past, and policy makers in the region can manage them. At the same time, countries should continue to make every effort to pursue sound macroeconomic policies and needed structural reforms.”

Two broad trends shape the outlook. Demand for Asia’s output is expected to grow as the recovery in the major industrial economies gains momentum.

Combined GDP growth in the United States, the euro area, and Japan is expected to pick up to 1.9% in 2014 from 1.0% in 2013 before strengthening further to 2.2% in 2015.

The improvement in demand will be offset somewhat by moderating growth in the PRC where the economy slowed to 7.7% in 2013 on impacts from tightened credit growth, pared industrial overcapacity, deepening local government debt, rising wages, currency appreciation, and the continuing shift in the government’s development priorities away from quantity toward quality.

These factors persist and PRC growth is forecast to slow to 7.5% in 2014 and 7.4% in 2015.

Growth patterns in Southeast Asia will be dominated by country factors

Subregional GDP decelerated to 5.0% in 2013 as soft export markets and slowdowns affected Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. Growth in Indonesia, the biggest of these economies, was dampened by policies the government adopted to subdue inflation after it sharply raised fuel prices. Subregional growth is forecast to be similar in 2014, as gains from better export markets are offset by moderating domestic demand.

The outlook improves to 5.4% in 2015, with growth picking up in Indonesia after inflation ebbs, and Thailand’s economy rebounding if political disruption recedes.

Bangkok Correspondent for Siam News Network. Editor at Thailand Business News

Comments

Banking

APAC corporates likely to improve in 2021

Moody’s Investors Service says in a new report that credit conditions in APAC will improve in 2021, supported by the gradual recovery of economic activity given the early containment of the pandemic in several Asian economies.

Pr News

Published

on

By

Ongoing fiscal and monetary support in both advanced and emerging markets will also aid improving conditions, but renewed lockdowns in parts of the world have stalled the nascent global economic recovery and create uncertainty around improving credit conditions.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Banking

Can Fintech drive a strong post-COVID-19 recovery in Asia?

The pandemic has highlighted the power of digital technology. Now is the time to harness this power for inclusive growth so that communities, especially in poor and remote areas, can survive the crisis and thrive.

Asian Development Bank

Published

on

To say 2020 has been a challenging year is a massive understatement. The COVID-19 pandemic has quickly undermined development gains from recent decades and slowed growth in many Asian economies.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Banking

BoT sees mild impact of new COVID-19 wave on the economy

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) does not see the new wave of COVID-19 infections as having as much of an impact on the economy as the first wave, as fewer businesses have had to be suspended.

National News Bureau of Thailand

Published

on

BANGKOK (NNT) – Despite a new and wider wave of COVID-19 infections in the country, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has assessed that the economic impact of the situation will not be as severe as the first wave as the effects of the virus are not as pronounced, and public health preparations, including plans for vaccination, are in place.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Latest

Most Viewed

Subscribe via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 13,608 other subscribers

Trending