Thailand Property Outlook – Thailand’s second largest property developer, Preuksa Real Estate Plc, says its sales figures for the first two months of 2009 have improved markedly since December 2008, and the firm is now targeting sales of Bt3 billion for the first quarter of this year.
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Thailand property market: Positive signs for low and middle segments
Thailand Property market
Some observers are concerned that the 2008 global financial crisis may affect the Thai real estate market. Many see similarities between the current US crisis and the 1997 Thai crisis, particularly in the role played by an over-built real estate sector. To properly analyze the 2008 global financial crisis’s impact on the Thai real estate market, we should first look at the current Thai real estate environment. The Thai real estate industry has grown significantly since the 1997 financial crisis. Although speculation is prevalent in some sectors, we have not experienced a 1997 bubble-like boom. Generally, a real estate bubble occurs when property prices rise quickly in a short period, primarily from speculation – resulting in a supply-and-demand imbalance. When property prices are rising faster than the cost of money and banks continue increasing loan-to-value ratios, funding becomes easier – propelling additional speculation.
Thailand is member of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) trade bloc and has free trade agreements with India and China, two fast-developing economic powerhouses. Consequently, many multinational companies are using the country as a regional base for its operations or a place to station employees who travel around Asia. Foreign investment in Thailand is constantly expanding, supporting the strong economic growth of the country.
Real estate developers in 2009 are more cautious and many have professionalized their operations
Thailand’s property market was able to rebound from past crises and there is every reason to believe it will be able to absorb the blow of recent political tensions. The taxation situation has actually improved the conditions for purchasing property in Thailand, and if property prices do dip slightly as a result of the current situation it may actually be a good time to buy as there is a very real possibility Thailand property will regain its golden outlook soonAs a result, the financial condition of most major housing developers in Thailand is much more robust than in the past. The development of the local bond markets and increasing domestic savings has the made the industry much less dependent on foreign funds, a significant difference from 1997.
Any fall in domestic savings will impact Thai Real Estate Market corporate funding and investment. Mortgage loans will be more difficult to obtain : The slowing economy will force Thailand’s banks to be more restrictive in their lending practices. Mortgage loans will be more difficult to acquire with rejection rates rising. Lower supply : Responding to slowing market conditions, developers will lower their risks by building fewer homes and reducing supply. New housing supply will also be reduced because developers will have more difficulty obtaining equity, bond and credit market financing because of the global financial crisis. Lower construction costs : The slowing global economy will result in lower construction materials costs as global demand for these materials decreases. Investors and speculators become sellers : Although current investment and speculative demand is still low, it is prevalent in some condominium-markets and tourist- property categories.Speculators expect to generate profits from price appreciation. If prices do not appreciate as expected on Thai Real Estate Market, they become sellers.
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