The top-ranked Thailand’s developer Pruksa Real Estate Plc (PS) plans an aggressive launch of 41 new projects worth a combined 28.7 billion baht by the first quarter of 2011 after doubling its annual budget for land acquisition to 14 billion baht to head off rivals.
The medium-term outlook is sobering, with growth expected at 3.5 percent in 2010 and likely remaining below potential for the next three years. Because the Thai economy is largely dependent on final demand in advanced economies, a return to pre-crisis rates of economic growth (a full recovery vs. a rebound to pre-crisis levels) will require a combination of (a recovery of demand from advanced economies and a rebalancing of the sources of growth to reduce Thailand’s dependence on demand from advanced economies. Neither process is likely to be swift.
Fiscal stimulus in China offset the decline in Thailand’s exports and is playing a role in the region’s rebound
Despite the rebound, Thailand’s export recovery is still subject to several downside risks. A recent export pickup in East Asia benefits mainly from coordinated and massive policy responses in G-3 economies and China that have boosted their demand for imports, and inventory re-stocking worldwide that followed a swift and large de-stocking in early-2009 as orders fell less than production.