Thai Stock Market Forecast for April 18, 2025

On April 18, 2025, the Thai stock market, tracked by the SET Index, is expected to trade sideways within a narrow range. This is influenced by the closure of most foreign markets for Good Friday, which may reduce trading activity. Rising oil prices are bolstering energy stocks, and the release of Q1 financial statements from banks is anticipated to attract speculative buying, potentially supporting the market.

Technical Levels

The resistance level is set at 1,150 points, and the support level is at 1,130 points. On April 17, 2025, the SET Index closed at 1,141.28 points, up 0.21%, with a trading value of THB 29.80 billion.

Broader Context

Recent U.S. tariffs and the aftermath of the March 2025 earthquake have created economic uncertainty, but trade negotiations and recovery efforts are helping stabilize the market. The Songkran holidays (April 13-17) may have impacted recent trading volumes, but the market is showing signs of stabilization.

Market Outlook and Expected Movement

On April 18, 2025, the Thai stock market is expected to trade sideways within a narrow range. This outlook is primarily influenced by the closure of the majority of foreign markets for Good Friday, which typically reduces global trading activity and can lead to a quieter domestic market. The narrow movement is anticipated due to limited external catalysts, with domestic factors playing a more significant role in market direction.

The previous day’s performance, on April 17, 2025, saw the SET Index close at 1,141.28 points, up 2.38 points or 0.21%, with a trading value of THB 29.80 billion. This slight upward movement suggests a stabilizing trend, but the holiday closure of foreign markets may constrain further volatility.

Influencing Factors

Several key factors are shaping the market outlook for April 18, 2025:

• Oil Prices: Rising oil prices are providing support to energy stocks, which could contribute to market stability. This is particularly relevant as energy sectors often act as a buffer during periods of global market inactivity.
• Bank Financial Statements: The release of Q1 2025 financial statements by banks is expected to attract speculative buying. Analysts anticipate that strong performances could bolster the SET Index, especially in the banking sector, which has been a focus for investors ahead of these releases.
• Holiday Impact: The recent Songkran holidays (April 13-17) may have led to reduced trading volumes, as seen in the trading value of THB 29.80 billion on April 17, which is relatively lower compared to earlier in the week. This holiday period could have contributed to a cautious market sentiment, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts.

Technical Levels and Market Range

Technical analysis indicates a resistance level for the SET Index at 1,150 points and a support level at 1,130 points Thai Stock Market Outlook on 18 April 2025 – Kaohoon International. Given the previous close of 1,141.28 points, the market is currently positioned within this range, suggesting potential for sideways trading unless significant domestic news emerges.

Broader Economic and Political Context

The Thai stock market’s outlook is also influenced by broader economic and political developments, particularly in light of recent events:

• Trade War Concerns: The U.S. has proposed tariffs, including a 36% levy on certain Thai imports, threatening Thailand’s $55 billion export market, with the U.S. being its largest export destination. This has created economic uncertainty, with reports noting a year-to-date drop of 16-20% in the SET Index, making it one of the world’s worst-performing major indices in 2025 Thai Stock Market Outlook – Thailand Business News. However, temporary exemptions for certain goods, such as smartphones and electronics, and ongoing trade negotiations set for April 23, 2025, have eased some immediate pressure.
• Post-Earthquake Recovery: The 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, 2025, had significant effects in Thailand, causing structural damage and market volatility. Initial panic selling was noted, with the SET Index plunging near 2004 Tsunami levels Thai Stock Market Outlook on 1 April 2025 – Kaohoon International. However, by April 2025, the immediate panic has subsided, and the focus has shifted to economic recovery and stimulus measures, with no new domestic supporting factors mentioned in recent outlooks.
• Domestic Economic Indicators: Thailand’s GDP growth in Q3 2024 was reported at 3%, but recent analyses suggest a potential slowdown due to trade war impacts, with projections for 2025 growth downgraded to 1.5% by major banks Thai Stock Market Outlook – Thailand Business News. This economic uncertainty is reflected in market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring government stimulus measures and bank performances.

Comparative Analysis: Recent Trends

To illustrate the market’s recent behavior, consider the following table summarizing outlooks from the past week:

This table shows a trend of stabilizing market expectations, with recent closes above support levels but below resistance, aligning with the sideways outlook for April 18, 2025.

Investor Recommendations

Analysts recommend that investors closely monitor the release of bank financial statements and any developments in trade negotiations, particularly the upcoming talks on April 23, 2025. The energy sector may offer opportunities due to rising oil prices, while export-reliant sectors like food and electronics remain vulnerable to tariff impacts Thai Stock Market Outlook on 3 April 2025 – Kaohoon International. Given the narrow range, a wait-and-see approach is advised for those not already positioned in speculative stocks.

As of April 18, 2025, the Thai stock market is expected to trade sideways within a narrow range, influenced by domestic factors such as rising oil prices and bank financial results, amidst a backdrop of global market closures and ongoing economic uncertainties. The SET Index’s position within the 1,130-1,150 range suggests stability, but investors should remain cautious, monitoring both domestic and international developments for potential shifts.