# Thailand Falls Behind as Asian Markets Soar in First Half of 2025

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/set/230456-thailand-falls-behind-as-asian-markets-soar-in-first-half-of-2025
- Published: 2025-06-30T17:29:47+07:00
- Author: Angela Reyes

**BANGKOK, June 30, 2025** — While much of Asia’s financial landscape saw robust
gains in the first half of 2025, Thailand’s equity market bucked the trend, weighed
down by political instability and looming trade threats. The benchmark SET index
has slumped to a five-year low, making it one of the region’s worst performers.

### Political Uncertainty and Border Tensions

Thailand’s market woes stem largely from a political crisis triggered by a leaked
conversation involving a border dispute with Cambodia. The diplomatic fallout has
rattled investor confidence and raised concerns over the country’s tourism-dependent
economy. Analysts warn that prolonged tensions could further erode Thailand’s economic
outlook.

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| Index | Country | YTD Change (%) | 
| KOSPI | South Korea | +27% | 
| Hang Seng | Hong Kong | +20% | 
| VN Index | Vietnam | +12% | 
| Sensex | India | +9% | 
| ST Index | Singapore | +7% | 
| Dow Jones | US | +5% | 
| Nikkei Stock Average | Japan | +3% | 
| Shanghai Composite | China | +2% | 
| PSEi | Philippines | +1% | 
| TAIEX | Taiwan | 0% | 
| IDX Composite | Indonesia | -2% | 
| KLCI | Malaysia | -4% | 
| **SET** | Thailand | **-15%** |

### Tariff Threats from Washington

Adding to the pressure is the threat of a 36% U.S. tariff on Thai exports, part 
of President Donald Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariff policy announced in April.
With the 90-day negotiation window set to expire on July 9, Thai officials are racing
to secure exemptions. The uncertainty has cast a long shadow over export-driven 
sectors.

### Regional Contrasts: Korea and Hong Kong Shine

In stark contrast, South Korea and Hong Kong posted over 20% gains in their benchmark
indexes. Korea’s rally was fueled by postelection optimism and a tech surge led 
by AI giants like Samsung and SK Hynix. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s IPO market roared
back to life as Chinese firms sought refuge from U.S. financial scrutiny.

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### Currency and Bond Trends

Despite equity market weakness, Thailand’s bond yields have declined, reflecting
investor expectations of monetary easing. The baht has remained relatively stable
compared to the surging New Taiwan dollar, which gained over 10% against the U.S.
dollar amid trade deal speculation.

### Commodities and Global Volatility

Oil prices fell sharply—down 10–11%—as OPEC+ ramped up output and Middle East tensions
eased. Gold and copper, however, soared on safe-haven demand and industrial optimism.
These global swings, coupled with Trump’s tariff brinkmanship, have kept markets
on edge.

### Forecast: Uncertain Times Ahead

With the U.S. tariff pause nearing its end and geopolitical risks still simmering,
Thailand’s economic trajectory remains uncertain. Policymakers face a delicate balancing
act: navigating external shocks while restoring domestic confidence.