Our 2024 forecast for Thailand’s tourist arrivals is growth of 28.3% y-o-y to 36.1mn. However, the market’s 2024 arrivals will fall short of the pre-pandemic level in 2019, meaning that the recover will still be playing out over the year.
We forecast a further expansion in Thailand’s tourist arrivals in 2025, growing by by15.1% y-o-y to reach 41.6mn with the year marking a full recovery. The market’s arrivals will continue to increase over the remainder of our medium-term forecast period (2024-2028), primarily driven by key source markets in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America.
We forecast Thailand’s tourist arrivals to grow 28.3% y-o-y over 2024 to reach 36.1mn, up from 28.2mn arrivals in 2023. Our view the growth in Thailand’s tourist arrivals growth to be robust over 2024 is supported by the most recent data published by Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism& Sports which indicates that the market had 14.8mn tourist arrivals over January to May 2024. This was higher than the 10.7mn arrivals over January to May 2023.
While we forecast Thailand’ tourist arrivals to grow over 2024, they will be at 90.5% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019 (39.9mn arrivals) which means that a recovery is still underway. In 2025 we forecast Thailand’s arrivals to continue to expand, growing by15.1% y-o-y to reach 41.6mn which is 104.2% of the pre-pandemic level with the year marking a full recovery in arrivals.
Thailand’s tourism sector is poised for significant growth, with predictions indicating a robust increase in tourist arrivals throughout 2024. As international travel restrictions ease and global tourism rebounds, Thailand is positioning itself as a prime destination for travelers seeking vibrant culture, exquisite cuisine, and breathtaking landscapes. The country’s efforts to enhance infrastructure, promote safety, and improve visitor experiences contribute to the optimistic outlook for tourism in the coming year.
In 2024, the Thai government anticipates welcoming millions of international visitors, significantly boosting the economy and creating numerous job opportunities in hospitality and related industries. Enhanced marketing campaigns targeting key markets, such as Europe and North America, and a focus on sustainable tourism practices will further draw tourists to the region. Additionally, upcoming events and festivals will likely entice visitors eager to immerse themselves in the rich traditions of Thailand.
By 2025, experts predict that Thailand’s tourism will fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, reaffirming its status as a beloved global travel destination. The combination of strategic investments, an enticing range of attractions, and a commitment to excellence will help solidify Thailand’s appeal in the competitive tourism market. As travelers seek unique experiences, Thailand is ready to welcome them back with open arms, ensuring a vibrant and prosperous future for its tourism industry.
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