Arrivals could fall to lowest level in three years as war drives up fuel costs and disrupts global travel
Thailand’s tourism industry faces a sobering year ahead, with the Ministry of Tourism and Sports warning that the country could receive three million fewer foreign visitors in 2026 — a near 10% drop from last year — if the Middle East conflict continues for another six months.
The shortfall would cost the economy an estimated 150 billion baht, wiping out a tenth of the country’s total foreign tourist receipts, according to Natthriya Thaweevong, the ministry’s permanent secretary.
“The heart of tourism is the journey, and to make that journey you need fuel,” Ms Natthriya told Bloomberg News. “Everyone is affected and faces the same high costs. We’ll lose tourists from all over.”
The warning puts the government’s ambitious target of 35 million foreign arrivals this year in serious doubt. Should the worst-case scenario materialise, visitor numbers could slip back to around 28 million — the level recorded in 2023 — erasing years of post-pandemic recovery efforts.
A Sector Already Under Pressure
The timing could hardly be worse. Tourism, which contributes roughly 12% to Thailand’s GDP, has struggled to regain its footing since the Covid-19 pandemic. Last year, the country welcomed 33 million visitors — itself a 7.2% decline from the prior year — as the country was battered by an earthquake, historic flooding, and deadly border clashes with Cambodia. In the first three months of 2026, arrivals are already running about 3% behind the same period a year ago.
Pivoting to New Markets
In response, authorities are redirecting marketing budgets originally earmarked for Europe and the United States toward country-specific campaigns in the Middle East. The government is aiming to attract at least 200,000 visitors from the region this year — roughly a quarter of last year’s total.
The appeal is clear: Middle Eastern tourists spend an average of 80,000 baht per trip, compared to 61,000 baht for Europeans and just 39,000 baht for Asian visitors. Their willingness to pay premium fares, including charter flights, makes them a resilient market even as airline costs soar.
Thailand is also doubling down on medical tourism, with flagship hospital groups Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and Bumrungrad Hospital leading efforts to position the country as a regional healthcare destination. Separately, short-haul campaigns targeting neighbouring Asian markets are being rolled out to compensate for reduced long-haul traffic.
Domestic Cushion
On the home front, the government plans to introduce incentives next month to encourage domestic travel, including tax allowances on tourism receipts. Officials are also weighing debt relief for hotel operators and fuel rationing at petrol stations to ensure tour buses can keep running.
Despite the headwinds, Ms Natthriya struck a determined note. “Now, with the war affecting things, this growth driver might be faltering,” she said. “But we have to keep going.”
