The overall value of Thailand’s exports in 2024 will be USD 300,529.5 million. Expanded by 5.4%, a significant improvement from the previous contraction of -0.8% in 2023.
Export value of Thai goods in the month Dec 2024 Growth accelerated by 8.7%, expanding for 6 consecutive months
Monthly export value of Thai goods December 2024 is $24,765.9 million. Excluding gold, it will expand close to 8.7% (compared to the same month last year), accelerating from 8.2% in the previous month, higher than the forecast (SCB EIC estimates 7.1%, while the Reuter Poll has a median forecast of 8.1%).
Dec continues to be good. This was stable from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis (0%MOM_SA), partly due to
(1) the acceleration of exports due to concerns about trade barriers by President Trump and trading partners of the United States, especially computers.
(2) The upward cycle of electronics products is expected to increase by 5% in the value of exports this month. and
(3) gold exports also expanded by 7.2%. Although it slowed down considerably (gold contributed to the 0.5% increase in the value of exports this month), the result was a high gold price and the need to accumulate gold to support the increase in geopolitical risks.
Export performance in December showed growth across nearly all categories, with the exception of minerals and fuels
Looking at each category, it was found that (1) industrial goods expanded for nine consecutive months at 11.1%, higher than the previous month at 9.5%, especially gems and gold jewelry. Machining and mechanical components Air conditioners, rubber products, and gold are still unformed. While the steel (2) Agricultural products expanded by 10.7%, accelerating significantly from the previous month’s 4.1%, which is a six-month continuous expansion, especially rubber and cassava products. (3) Agricultural products expanded slightly to 6.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. Meanwhile, vegetable and animal fats and oils and granulated sugar are important commodities that contracted. and (4) Mineral and fuel products contracted strongly by -32.0% from -7.1% in the previous month, following a contraction of -33.7% from -16.3% in the previous month (Figures 1 and 2).
Exports expanded strongly in many major markets. Especially the United States, China, Europe, and India
If you look at the main markets, It was found that (1) the US market The growth rate was 17.5%, almost double the previous month’s 9.5%, especially air conditioners and components, switchboards and current control panels. computer (2) European market The number of major export products expanded up to 11 out of 15 items, especially machinery and components, by 177.5% compared to 14.2% in the previous month. (4) The Chinese market grew slightly to 15% from 16.9% in the previous month, with exports of fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits slowing significantly to 1.8% from 47.6% in the previous month. (5) Hong Kong market contracted sharply to -23.3% from -9.9% in the previous month, with electronics being the main segment of the contract, and (6) CLMV market expanded by 20.7% month-on-month. Some exports, such as refined oil, contracted by -10.3% from -0.7% in the previous month. Exports to Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam continued to expand by 55.3%, 47.5% and 5.8% respectively. Meanwhile, exports to the Lao PDR Laos contracted back -3.1%.
Thailand’s exports in 2024 exceeded expectations, achieving a 5.4% growth, with particularly strong performance in the second half of the year
The overall value of Thailand’s exports in 2024 will be USD 300,529.5 million. In the first quarter, the value of exports contracted slightly by -0.3% but reversed to 4.3% in the second quarter as the global economy recovered. Downward interest rate cycle in major countries around the world The water level in the Panama Canal has returned to normal, resulting in normal transportation and good export prices in many commodity groups, such as the increase in the price of agricultural products in line with the decrease in global output due to drought and export control policies in some countries, such as rice, fresh fruits, chilled, frozen and dried.
As a result, in the first half of the year, the value of exports expanded by 1.9%, while the value of Thailand’s exports in the second half of the year expanded very well at 9% (7.5% and 10.5% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively). The upward cycle of electronic goods and foreign demand began to accelerate due to concerns that countries, especially the United States, may impose additional import taxes in 2025, coupled with a low base factor in the last quarter.
The agricultural products category expanded the most. This was followed by industrial goods and agro-industrial products which expanded by 7.5%, 5.9% and 4.1% respectively. However, mineral and fuel products contracted by -6.5%. Led by the US, CLMV, the European Union and China which expanded by 13.7%, 12.7%, 9.5% and 3.1% respectively. However, exports to Japan contracted by -5.3% for the third consecutive year.
The U.S. is Thailand’s largest export market. The total value was USD 54,956.2 million, up from the previous year’s USD 48,352.8 million. The proportion of Thai exports to the US accounted for 18.3% of the total value of Thai exports, up from 17% last year.
Import Month December accelerated as expected from a low base, but the trade deficit was the smallest in 3 months
Monthly import value of Thai goods December was $24,776.5 million, up 14.9% (SCB EIC estimates 14.8%, while Reuter Poll has a median forecast of 13.7%), compared to 0.9% in the previous month. The value of imports expanded for six consecutive months by importing weapons and consumables. Capital goods, raw material and semi-finished products. Consumer Goods Exports expanded by 46.8%, 33.5%, 20.4% and 13.3% respectively. however Vehicles and transportation equipment, fuel goods, and capital goods continued to contract at -21.3% and -9.3%, respectively. Overall, the value of imports for the whole of 2024 expanded by 6.3% after contracting by -4.2% in 2023. Dec. Slight deficit -10.6 million US dollars. As a result, Thailand’s trade balance for the whole of 2024 will have a deficit of -6,280.4 million US dollars (customs figures).
Exports are expected to maintain strong growth in early 2025. However, significant pressure factors may emerge in the latter half of the year
Thai exports in early 2025 will continue to expand well. From the trend of accelerating orders from trading partners before the US trade barrier policy, coupled with the base factor is not very high. In addition, there are additional benefits from the upward cycle of electronic goods that still exists despite the risk of US trade policy and the increase in oil prices in early 2025 due to colder-than-expected weather, which will result in an increase in the price of oil and oil-related export products such as plastics and petrochemicals. However, in the next period, oil prices are likely to be negatively affected by the policy of increasing oil drilling in the United States.
Thailand’s export pressures in the second half of this year will increase significantly due to (1) the global economy is likely to slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.7% in 2024 due to the effects of trade barriers, investment, and border movements that will occur in many countries around the world. In addition, many major trading partner economies are facing internal problems, such as China, which faces various structural problems. (2) The international trade climate is likely to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to the impact of trade barriers in many countries. (3) The demand for intermediate goods exported by Thailand to China for production as downstream products may slow down. Especially the downstream products that China exports to the US market and the problem of China’s overcapacity. There is a tendency to become more severe in the global market. and (4) a high base factor in 2024 that expands by more than 5%.
