# Exports will grow 12.9% in 2025 but slow in 2026 due to US tariffs and a high base

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/trade/281842-exports-will-grow-12-9-in-2025-but-slow-in-2026-due-to-us-tariffs-and-a-high-base
- Published: 2026-01-29T10:27:42+07:00
- Author: Nguyen Trang

In December 2025, merchandise exports surged to US$28,835 million, marking a significant
16.8% year-on-year growth, up from 7.1% in the previous month and surpassing expectations(
SCB EIC’s forecast of 10.5% and the Reuters Poll median of 8.7%). Seasonally adjusted
figures indicated a 6.9% month-on-month increase (MOM_SA) following two months of
contraction.

### 📈 Export Performance in 2025

 * Thai exports grew **12.9% in 2025**, the highest in four years.
 * December 2025 exports surged **16.8% year-on-year**, driven by electronics and
   gold.
 * **Electronics exports** rose strongly (over 38% for the year), supported by global
   demand for AI and data center products.
 * **Gold exports** rebounded sharply (+48.5% for the year) due to rising global
   prices.
 * Exports to the **US grew 32%**, despite tariffs, thanks to exemptions on key 
   products like electronics.

**Key takeaway:** 2025 was a record year for Thai exports, driven by electronics
and gold, but imports grew just as fast, leaving a trade deficit. In 2026, growth
is expected to slow sharply due to tariffs and a high base, though electronics and
gold may cushion the downturn

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Exports of electronics products, particularly to the United States, continue to 
be a major driving force, while gold prices have rebounded and are expanding strongly
again.

**1. Thai exports to the United States continued their strong growth of 54.3% year-
on-year (YOY) in December 2025, despite several products being subject to higher
tariffs.**

Exports to the US at the end of 2025 accelerated compared to November (37.9% YOY).
Excluding electronics (which are still exempt from US tariffs), exports of this 
product group to the US market also grew strongly by 21.7%, reflecting high demand
for Thai products in the US market even in the face of tariffs. Thirteen out of 
15 main Thai export items to the US showed strong growth, especially electronics
and electrical appliances such as computers, equipment and components; fax machines,
telephones, equipment and components; transformers and components; machinery and
machinery parts; and air conditioners and components, which grew by 123%, 117.3%,
86.6%, 48.4%, and 46.5%, respectively **. Exports to the US contributed 10.2% to
Thailand’s total export growth (CTG) in December, more than half of the overall 
export growth of 16.8%.**
**2. Electronics exports continued their strong growth,
driven** by exports to the US market, the upward cycle of global electronics, and
the expanding global trend of investment in the electronics and data center industries.
Electronics exports continued their high growth of 52.8%, accelerating from 46.2%
and 38.8% in November and October respectively, and marking the 21st consecutive
month of growth. Looking at individual markets, 13 of the top 15 markets for Thai
electronics exports showed growth, with 10 of those markets expanding by more than
15%, particularly the US, Mexico, and India, which saw growth of 114.2%, 122.8%,
and 152.6% respectively **. Electronics exports contributed 10.1% to Thailand’s 
total export growth (CTG) this month, more than half of the overall export growth
of 16.8%.****3. Gold has once again become a major export commodity.** Exports of
unrefined gold expanded sharply by 163.6%, recovering from continuous contractions
of -53.3% and -76.9% in November and October, respectively. This may partly be due
to the higher gold prices in December. **Exports of unrefined gold contributed 2.7%
to Thailand’s total export growth of 16.8% this month (CTG).**

### Imports continue to accelerate, causing Thailand to experience a trade deficit for the third consecutive month.

**The value of goods imports in December 2025 reached US$29,280.4 million, expanding
by a high of 18.8%, compared to 17.6% and 16.3% in November and October, respectively.**
This exceeded estimates (SCB EIC estimated 12% and the Reuters Poll median value
was 15.8%). Overall, the value of imports for the whole year 2025 is projected to
expand by a high of 12.9%, equal to the value of exports for the whole year. This
month, imports of vehicles and transport equipment, capital goods, and consumer 
goods accelerated by 39.3%, 31.7%, and 27.2%, respectively. While imports of raw
materials and semi-finished goods (including gold), weapons and military equipment,
and other goods slowed down somewhat, they still showed high double-digit growth
of 19.9% ​​and 10.2%, respectively. However, fuel imports were the only category
that contracted sharply by -17.1%, similar to the previous month’s -16.7%, marking
four consecutive months of contraction (Figure 3).

 * **Imports of capital goods and raw materials and semi-finished goods, mostly 
   related to electronics** such as printed circuit boards, diodes, transistors,
   and semiconductor devices, showed high growth of 56.3%, 86.3%, and 89.3% respectively(
   32.7% of the value of raw materials and semi-finished goods imports this month).
   Meanwhile, imports of capital goods, mostly electrical machinery and components,
   and mechanical machinery and components, showed high growth of 60.6% and 22.8%
   respectively (61% of the value of capital goods imports this month). The majority
   of capital goods and raw materials and semi-finished goods imports, with 48.8%
   and 28.7% of the total import value in each category this month, originated from
   China.
 * **Imports of consumer goods showed strong growth in 14 out of 15 major categories**,
   particularly electrical appliances, miscellaneous goods, and home furnishings
   and decorations, which increased by 52.3%, 33.6%, and 21.8% respectively (38.1%
   of the value of consumer goods imports this month). More than half (54%) of these
   imports were from China.

**The trade balance (customs system) for December 2025 showed a deficit of -US$352
million,** a smaller deficit compared to the previous month’s -US$2,726.9 million.(
The deficit is close to SCB EIC’s forecast of -US$200 million, while the Reuters
Poll’s median forecast for Thailand was a high -US$1,800 million.)

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For the whole of 2025, Thailand’s export value expanded by as much as 12.9%, despite
facing challenges from US import tariffs. However, import value also grew very strongly
at 12.9%, reflecting the potential limited value added from exports to the Thai 
economy.

**Overall, Thailand’s total export value for 2025 is projected at US$339,635 million,
expanding by 12.9%, the highest growth in four years. This** growth is more than
double the 5.4% growth in 2024 (customs system figures) and significantly higher
than the 10.7% and 10.7%-11.4% forecasts from SCB EIC and the Ministry of Commerce,
respectively. The main contributing factors are (Figure 4).
**1. The US actually
imposed retaliatory tariffs that were much less severe than initially announced.**

 * **The United States has set lower tariffs than announced on Liberation Day (April
   2).** The weighted average of tariffs imposed by the US on the global economy
   has decreased from the 22.7% estimated by the WTO in May to 18.2% in November(
   Figure 6, left). For Thailand, the US reduced import tariffs by almost half, 
   from 36% to 19%, close to that of its regional competitors. This has prevented
   Thailand from losing significant competitiveness in the US market, addressing
   concerns that it might face higher tariffs than regional competitors such as 
   Malaysia and Vietnam.
 * **The US postponed the implementation date of new tariffs from April to August,**
   allowing Thailand to continue exporting to the US for several months. As a result,
   total exports to the US for the year are expected to grow by a significant 32%,
   a substantial acceleration from the 13.6% growth projected for 2024 (CTG contributes
   5.8% to Thailand’s 2025 export growth of 12.9%).
 * **The United States has also exempted key Thai export products from tariffs,**
   mostly products important to the US and those that the US does not produce or
   produces in small quantities, such as certain electronic products, LED lights,
   graphite, some pharmaceutical components, and some agricultural products. As 
   a result, many countries that rely heavily on exports of these goods to the US,
   such as Thailand, Taiwan, and Vietnam, continue to experience strong growth. (
   Thailand’s electronics exports to the US are projected to grow by 52.5% in 2025,
   and CTG (Cost, Product, and Technology) accounts for over 20% of Thailand’s total
   export growth to the US in 2025, which is projected at 32%).

**2. The upward cycle of electronics products, a key export commodity for Thailand**(
accounting for 21.5% of Thailand’s total export value in 2025, up from 17.6% in 
2024), is driven by demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology products 
and the expanding global trend of investment in the electronics and data center 
industries.

Furthermore, it is boosted by accelerated exports of these products to the United
States, as some items remain exempt from additional tariffs. As a result, the value
of Thai electronics exports is projected to grow by over 38.3% in 2025 (CTG accounts
for 6.7% of the total export growth of 12.9%).
**3. Exports of unrefined gold expanded
by over 48.5%,** driven by significantly higher gold prices due to increased global
demand for gold as a hedge against heightened global risks. (CTG: Exports of unrefined
gold accounted for 1.4% of Thailand’s total export growth of 12.9%. Including the
special gold exports to India in Q1/2025, Thailand’s gold exports this year accounted
for 2.2% of the total export growth of 12.9%).**4. Tensions between China and the
US have eased significantly,** with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports to
only 20% from over 100% initially projected for early 2025. This has led to a shift
in the global economic outlook and global trade volume (for example, the WTO, which
previously estimated a -0.2% contraction in global trade in April, revised its outlook
to a 2.4% expansion in October). Consequently, Thai exports to markets outside the
US have performed well, including China, the European Union, and ASEAN-5, which 
saw high growth rates of 12.6%, 8.5%, and 6.9%, respectively.**Although Thailand’s
export value is projected to grow significantly in 2025, the value of imports for
the entire year is also accelerating rapidly.** Total imports reached US$344,943
million, an increase of 12.9%, the highest in four years, mirroring export growth.
The main import categories were raw materials and semi-finished products, and capital
goods, which grew by more than 17.9% and 20.3% respectively (CTG combined accounted
for 12.5% ​​of the total import growth in 2025, which is projected at 12.9%) (Figure
5).

 * **The raw materials and semi-finished goods category (CTG = 7.2%) consists mainly
   of gold and electronic components,** consistent with the continuous growth in
   Thailand’s electronics and gold exports. However, due to limitations in Thailand’s
   production of upstream and midstream electronics products, the country relies
   on imports of key components such as printed circuit boards (growing by over 
   41.3%) from major manufacturers, particularly China and Taiwan, to support increased
   export production demand. Gold imports grew by over 36%, mostly to compensate
   for export losses and possibly due to increased domestic demand for gold accumulation.
 * **Capital goods (CTG: 5.3%)** mainly consist of imports of electrical machinery
   and components, mechanical machinery and components, and computer equipment and
   components, expanding by over 47.1%, 16.2%, and 4.1% respectively. This aligns
   with data showing continued growth in investment in the electronics and data 
   center industries in Thailand, a key factor driving exceptionally high growth
   in capital goods imports in 2025.
 * **Thailand imports most of its goods from China and Taiwan,** with import values​​
   from China and Taiwan projected to grow by 33.5% and 23.5% respectively in 2025.
   CTG (Cost, Vehicle, and Taiwan) accounts for 10.4% (China 8.8%, Taiwan 1.6%) 
   of the 12.9% growth in Thailand’s import value in 2025, particularly from China.
   This growth may partly be due to excess production capacity following trade restrictions
   imposed by other countries, especially the United States, while the Chinese economy
   remains weak, leading to a greater focus on exporting to markets outside the 
   US, especially Southeast Asia.

**Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (MPI), as shown in Figure 6 (right),
has not expanded as strongly as export trends, possibly reflecting limited added
value to the Thai economy from exports in 2025.** Furthermore, Thailand’s trade 
balance (customs system) is projected to show a high deficit of -US$5,307.9 million
in 2025, the highest in three years.

Thailand’s export outlook for 2026 (as of December 2025) is projected to slow significantly
to -1.5%, following global trade trends and a high base effect. However, there is
still upside potential from several factors.

**SCB EIC forecasts that Thai exports will slow down in 2026.** The global economy
and world trade volume in 2026 are likely to experience slower growth due to the
full and clear impact of US tariffs under the Trump administration. Some special
supporting factors from 2025 will fade, such as the accelerated production and export
growth before being affected by the trade war (front-loading), the exceptional gold
exports to India, the strengthening Thai baht which may affect the competitiveness
of Thai goods, and the high base effect from the 12.9% growth in 2025. However**,
the outlook for global trade, digital investment trends, and gold demand have improved,
although still showing signs of slowing down. This means there is still upside potential
to the previously estimated -1.5% export growth for Thailand in 2025.**
**1. Global
trade volume in 2026:** International organizations (as of January 2026), such as
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), forecast global trade volume to expand by
2.6% this year. Although this growth is lower than the 4.1% in 2025, it is higher
than the original estimate of 2.3% in October 2025.**2. The trend of investment 
in digital technologies, especially AI,** is expected to remain strong in 2026, 
although it may slow down somewhat from 2025. This will result in high demand for
modern electronic products such as semiconductors and integrated circuits. Data 
shows that South Korea’s exports in the first 20 days of January 2026 expanded by
14.9%, with semiconductor and wireless communication equipment exports growing by
70.2% and 48%, respectively.**3. Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains high**
due to the significantly increased geopolitical risks in the Trump 2.0 era. Furthermore,
the World Gold Council indicates that central banks continue to be net buyers of
gold for their international reserves. Several leading global investment research
firms predict that gold prices will continue to rise this year, and historical data
shows that Thailand’s gold exports move in line with global gold prices.