# Thai Exports Surge by 9.9% in February, Yet Full-Year Forecast Grows Uncertain

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/trade/296392-thai-exports-surge-by-9-9-in-february-yet-full-year-forecast-grows-uncertain
- Published: 2026-03-28T07:40:00+07:00
- Author: Fujiko Takahashi

In February 2026, **Thai exports grew by 9.9%** year-on-year, reaching **US$29.43
billion** (912.56 billion baht). This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion,
primarily driven by the **electronics and electrical appliances** sectors, which
have benefited from the global AI boom. 

Despite this growth and a strong performance in the first two months of the year,
the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has issued a cautious outlook, warning
that full-year exports could contract by as much as 3% due to rising freight costs,
volatile energy prices, and a strengthening baht.

### Related**Posts**

###  󠀁[What Would an ASEAN-Canada Free Trade Agreement Mean for Foreign Investors?](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/331504-what-would-an-asean-canada-free-trade-agreement-mean-for-foreign-investors)󠁿

###  󠀁[The Changing Map of Growth: Why East Asia and the RCEP Are More Important Than Ever](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/opinion/328474-the-changing-map-of-growth-why-east-asia-and-the-rcep-are-more-important-than-ever)󠁿

###  󠀁[China and ASEAN trade deal speeds up business exchanges](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/asean/329080-china-and-asean-trade-deal-speeds-up-business-exchanges)󠁿

###  󠀁[Thailand Business News — Morning Briefing : Thailand & Asia | 17 September 2026](https://www.thailand-business-news.com/finance/329176-thailand-business-news-morning-briefing-thailand-asia-17-september-2026)󠁿

ADVERTISEMENT

## Key Takeaways

 * **Top Performers:**
    - **Industrial:** Computers and components (+49.8%), telephone equipment (+217.7%),
      and radio/TV transmitters (+251.5%).
    - **Agricultural/Food:** Fresh fruits (+62.3%), processed chicken (+94%), and
      fats/oils (+271.1%).
 * **Major Markets:** Shipments to the **US surged by 40.5%**, while exports to 
   the EU (+20.6%) and ASEAN (+17.8%) also saw double-digit growth.
 * **Trade Balance:** Despite export growth, imports rose sharply by 31.8% to US
   $32.27 billion, resulting in a **US$2.83 billion trade deficit** for the month.
 * Industrial product exports rose by 13.3%, led by significant surges in telephone
   equipment (217.7%), computer components (49.8%), and radio/television transmitters(
   251.5%).
 * The agricultural and agro-industrial sectors saw a 5.7% decline, marking a second
   month of contraction, though high-potential items like processed chicken and 
   fresh fruits recorded substantial gains.
 * Key growth drivers include the global shift toward AI technology and supply-chain
   diversification, while pressure factors include high freight costs and price 
   competition in agricultural commodities like rice.

Export growth was strongest in major markets such as the United States (40.5%) and
the European Union (20.6%), while shipments to Russia and the CLMV region (Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam) declined.

Looking forward, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains cautious. The Trade
Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) warns of potential contractions due to rising 
freight costs, energy price volatility, and currency appreciation. The full-year
forecast ranges from a best-case growth of 1.1% to a worst-case contraction of 3%,
depending on how these global economic pressures evolve.