# When trade routes become risky: How businesses should adjust their supply chains in an uncertain world

- Link: https://www.thailand-business-news.com/trade/306708-when-trade-routes-become-risky-how-businesses-should-adjust-their-supply-chains-in-an-uncertain-world
- Published: 2026-05-12T09:05:00+07:00
- Author: Economic Intelligence Center Siam Commercial Bank

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## **The Middle East war caused higher costs. Supply chain stumbles and production slowed due to supply problems**

**The intensification of the war in the Middle East has reinforced global business
awareness that “geopolitical risks” It is no longer just a temporary event that 
creates periodic fluctuations, but is becoming a structural risk to the global economy**
This will inevitably affect long-term business operations. The war in the Middle
East had a wide-ranging impact. From volatile and skyrocketing oil prices, transportation
costs, freight and insurance premiums from significantly increased war risks. to
the problem of delayed transportation and shortages of raw materials or parts in
the chainSupply Many countries are beginning to see a slowdown in production activity,
not as a result of lost demand but as a result of supply disruptions
For Thailand,
such risks have a wide impact on the business sector. The EEC area is one of the
production bases of important industries that are affected by various groups, such
as energy, petrochemicals, automobiles, and electronics. including agriculture and
food These industries all rely on foreign raw materials, parts, and machinery, while
also relying on export markets inhigh proportion When the war situation is still
highly uncertain The impact therefore occurs in many dimensions. both higher costs
Uncertainty in the supply of production factors and risks in product delivery Such
risks not only affect a particular company. But it is a structural risk for the 
entire industry cluster. Because if the upstream industry stopsCha Ngak downstream
industries will be affected in a chain

## **How to ensure continuity of production and delivery? Even in the face of uncertainty**

Over the past several decades The mass production sector grows under the concept
Just‑in‑Time Or having raw materials “just in time, just using ”, which will help
reduce stock costs and increase efficiency in normal conditions where transportation
is stable. But as the global context shifts from certainty to geopolitical risk,
Such models therefore began to existWeaknesses are greater because systems without
adequate bumpers become fragile immediately when raw materials or critical parts
are missing, causing the entire production line to be disrupted
**The important 
question that businesses need to rethink is not just “, how to keep costs as low
as ”, but “, how to ensure continuous production and delivery? Even in the face 
of uncertainty” **Especially in industries that rely heavily on the global market,
in this context the Just‑in‑Case concept Therefore, it has returned to play a greater
role as a risk management tool. However, Just‑in‑Case It does not mean hoarding 
so many products that costs escalate. But it is about giving importance to flexibility
and being able to absorb shocks throughManage stock with goals The business sector
should start by specifying which raw materials or parts are “bottlenecks that, if
lacking, will result in production being halted. Then build a safety stock at a 
critical point, distributing purchasing sources to more than one country. or have
backup suppliers for important parts along with investing inSupplier mapping system
to see the supply chain as deep as Tier 2-3 and use real-time data to help predict
and recognize risks from the beginningLessons from abroad clearly reflect this idea.
For example, Japan’s Toyota, which was previously severely affected by the earthquake
and tsunami. Until having to review the supply chain in a big way An important list
of parts that must maintain continuity of supply has been prepared and a minimum
level of reserve has been set for some specialized partsType The goal is not to 
abandon the Lean system (a work process aimed at reducing waste and using fewer 
resources), but rather to make the Lean system more impact resistant**In the period
ahead, business competitiveness will not be measured solely by the lowest costs,
but rather by readiness for uncertainty **Businesses that can balance efficiency
Just‑in‑Time and flexibility Just‑in‑Case Maintain continuity of production Adjust
the supply chain to be flexible. Increase the efficiency of raw material and energy
management well and be able to deliver products as scheduled. It will have the potential
to become an important production base in the global supply chain. Because in a 
world where “Irregularities have become normal” Ability to deliver continuously 
Therefore, it is one of the keys to competitiveness**Published in N.S.P Krungthep
Turakij, Smart EEC Column, May 7, 2026**