How reliant are the six major Asian economies on the U.S. market?

The six leading Asian economies—China, Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Indonesia—exhibit notable differences in their reliance on the U.S. market, influenced by their unique export profiles, trade dynamics, and economic frameworks.

With Trump’s 104% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% baseline tariff on all countries (plus additional reciprocal rates) now in effect, these dependencies are under fresh scrutiny.

The table below summarizes the dependence levels, ranked from highest to lowest:

China: The U.S. is a critical market, but its share of China’s total exports has been declining. In 2024, exports to the U.S. accounted for about 16-18% of China’s total exports, down from over 20% a decade ago, as China pivots toward ASEAN and Belt and Road partners. Total exports contribute roughly 20% to China’s GDP, meaning the U.S. market directly drives about 3-4% of GDP. The 104% tariff (34% reciprocal atop existing duties) threatens this slice, but China’s domestic consumption (over 50% of GDP) and diversified trade mitigate absolute dependence. Still, disruptions in high-value sectors like electronics could amplify indirect effects.

Japan: The U.S. is Japan’s largest single export destination, taking around 20% of its total exports in 2024, with key goods like autos and machinery hit by the new 24% tariff. Exports overall account for 15-18% of Japan’s GDP, so the U.S. market contributes roughly 3-4% to GDP directly. Japan’s economic reliance on exports has waned since the 1980s, with domestic demand now over 70% of GDP, but the tariff sting—especially on autos—could shave growth estimates, already fragile at 1.1% for 2025.

South Korea: Heavily export-driven, South Korea sends about 15-17% of its exports to the U.S., with semiconductors, autos, and electronics leading the charge. Exports constitute 40-45% of GDP, making the U.S. market responsible for 6-8% of GDP. The 25% tariff (up from free trade terms since 2012) threatens this, particularly for Hyundai and Samsung. South Korea’s acting president has called it a “trade crisis,” signaling high sensitivity to U.S. demand shifts.

India: India’s reliance on the U.S. is growing but remains modest. The U.S. takes about 18% of India’s exports—pharma, IT services, and textiles—yet exports are only 18-20% of GDP. This pegs the U.S. market’s direct contribution at 3-4% of GDP. India’s 7% growth in 2024 leans more on domestic consumption (60% of GDP) and investment, cushioning it from Trump’s 10% baseline tariff. Its pharma exports, often exempt, further reduce vulnerability.

Taiwan: Taiwan is among the most U.S.-dependent, with 25-30% of its exports—dominated by semiconductors—going stateside. Exports drive 60-65% of GDP, so the U.S. market accounts for 15-20% of GDP. The 32% tariff (sparing chips for now) poses a severe risk, though TSMC’s $100 billion U.S. investment might soften the blow. Taiwan’s economy could contract 3.8% if exports crater, per Bloomberg estimates, highlighting its exposure.

Indonesia: The U.S. takes 10-12% of Indonesia’s exports—commodities like palm oil and textiles—with exports at 20-25% of GDP. This ties the U.S. market to 2-3% of GDP. Indonesia’s 5% growth in 2024 rests more on domestic demand (55% of GDP) and FDI in metals and mining, making it less vulnerable to the 10% tariff. China and ASEAN are bigger trade partners, diluting U.S. reliance.

Taiwan and South Korea are the most reliant, with the U.S. contributing significant double-digit shares to their GDPs. They are followed by China, Japan, and India at moderate dependency levels (3-4%), while Indonesia remains the least dependent. The introduction of new tariffs intensifies these dynamics, posing the greatest risks to export-driven tech economies. In contrast, domestically oriented nations like India and Indonesia have a stronger buffer against such impacts.