Thailand was just added to the U.S. Treasury’s currency watchlist in January 2026 due to its rising trade surplus with the U.S. and strong current account balance, but it was not labeled a currency manipulator. This puts Thailand under closer scrutiny alongside major economies like China, Japan, and
The US Treasury Department has added Thailand to its currency watchlist, alongside Japan, which remains on the list. This biannual report monitors major trading partners for potentially unfair foreign-exchange practices, though no country, including Thailand, was designated a currency manipulator, which could trigger US sanctions. The latest report, covering the latter half of 2024 and the first six months of 2025, found no major trading partner met all three criteria for enhanced analysis.
Key Facts About Thailand’s Addition to the Watchlist
- Date of inclusion: Thailand was added in the January 2026 semi-annual currency report covering the second half of 2024 and first half of 2025.
- Reason: The U.S. Treasury cited Thailand’s rising global current account surplus and significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. as the main triggers.
- No manipulators found: Despite the watchlist expansion, the Treasury concluded that no country met all three criteria required to be formally designated a “currency manipulator.”
- Other countries on the list: Thailand joins nine other economies already under monitoring: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland.
The Treasury’s semi-annual report, released in January, cited Thailand’s rising global current account surplus and its significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States as key reasons for the inclusion. While the designation signals heightened monitoring, the report stopped short of labeling Thailand a “currency manipulator.”
Key Information:
- Thailand’s Inclusion:
- Thailand was added to the watchlist due to increases in its current account surplus and its bilateral trade surplus with the United States.
- It joins nine other countries already on the list: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland.
- Expanded Monitoring Criteria:
- The Treasury is broadening its monitoring to assess the extent to which economies smooth exchange rate movements, specifically looking at efforts to resist depreciation pressure symmetrical to those resisting appreciation.
- The department will examine whether interventions to resist depreciation are less aggressive compared to those resisting appreciation.
- Future analysis will also consider other government policies that influence foreign exchange markets, such as capital controls, macroprudential measures, and the use of government investment vehicles or pension funds.
- The Treasury will also study countries’ use of foreign exchange swaps to sterilize spot interventions and their net forward positions.
- Traditional Monitoring Criteria (for automatic inclusion on the list):
- A trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion.
- A global current account surplus exceeding 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Persistent, one-way net foreign exchange purchases reaching 2% of GDP. (Countries meeting two of these three criteria are automatically added to the watchlist).
- Status of Other Key Countries:
- China: Remains on the watchlist, facing “depreciation pressure” for its yuan. The Treasury noted China’s continued “lack of transparency around its exchange rate policies and practices” and stated that this lack of transparency would not prevent designation as a manipulator if evidence of intervention to resist appreciation emerges.
- Japan: Continues to be on the watchlist, battling a weak yen. US authorities have offered tacit backing to Japan’s efforts to strengthen the yen through calibrated communication, including the New York Fed conducting dollar/yen rate checks. However, the US Treasury Secretary clarified that the US is not intervening to support the yen.
For Thailand, the watchlist status is more of a diplomatic signal than a sanction, but it could shape future discussions on trade and monetary policy. Analysts note that Bangkok will need to balance its export competitiveness with assurances to international partners that its currency practices remain fair and transparent.
