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Contentious US-China relations are clouding global credit conditions

US-China tensions will affect not only global trade, but also technology, investments and geopolitics

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Despite a temporary de-escalation of hostilities following the G-20 summit, the relationship between the US and China will remain contentious, says Moody’s Investors Service in a new report.

Narrow agreements and modest concessions in the ongoing trade dispute will not bridge the wide gulf in their respective economic, political and strategic interests.

At the G-20 meetings that concluded on December 1, the US and China agreed to continue trade negotiations, during which the US will suspend for 90 days the planned increase in tariffs targeted for January 2019, and China will increase imports from the US.

Despite this temporary de-escalation of hostilities, Moody’s expect the relationship between the world’s two
largest economies to remain contentious.

“The US and China have differences that are deep and multi-faceted, leading to diverging national and commercial interests,” says Moody’s Managing Director Atsi Sheth. “As China increases its influence in global economics and politics and the US retrenches its international engagement, the relationship between the two powers has entered a new, tense and uncertain phase.”

Differences in strategic objectives between the two will affect credit conditions in four key areas: Trade, technology, investment and geopolitics.

Neither country is likely to cede its key national priorities to defuse tensions. However, an economic cold war that leads to decoupling would be costly for both the US and China.

The rating agency says relations between the two countries will swing between conflict and compromise.

The impact of US-China tensions on credit conditions will be felt at the global, country, sector and company level. A worsening of tensions would disrupt global trade, erode the effectiveness of the international multilateral trade regime and dampen growth. Financial market volatility will affect valuations and borrowing costs for many debt issuers.

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Thai Baht currency control mulled by central bank

The Industry Minister proposed measures to help business owners, such as the promotion of Thai Baht as a currency for international trade to reduce the risks from US Dollar currency fluctuation

National News Bureau of Thailand

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BANGKOK, 15th August 2019 (NNT) – The Minister of Industry has held talks with the Bank of Thailand’s Governor over measures to control the fluctuation of Thai Baht currency, minimize impacts faced by SMEs and promote the import of machinery during this time to take advantage of the stronger currency.

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Thailand’s dangerous debt addiction

Thailand is now a top-ten highest household debt country among 89 countries worldwide and third highest among 29 Asian countries.

Olivier Languepin

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Thailand’s household debt has steadily increased to 78.6% of the country’s gross domestic products (GDP), or Bt12.8 trillion in the fourth quarter of last year, according to figures from the National Economic and Social Development Council.

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Thailand’s four challenges : Debt, inequality, plastics and climate change

Thais tended to get into debt faster, for longer and for higher amounts. Indebtedness starts as soon as they begin to work at age 25 and can increase until 56 years old.

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Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob, in his speech entitled “Formulating for the Future of Corporate Governance”, delivered at the Finance and Beyond National Director Conference 2019 in Bangkok (July 24th), said Thailand faces four challenges that require good governance in businesses to address.

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