The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted Thailand’s GDP growth forecast, from -7.7% to -7.1% for 2020.
According to Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, this is a sign that the Thai economy is recovering after the Government eased lockdown restrictions.
For emerging markets and developing economies, growth is forecast at –3.3% in 2020, 0.2 percentage point weaker than in the June 2020 WEO Update, strengthening to 6% in 2021.
The revision reflects better than expected second quarter GDP outturns, mostly in advanced economies, where activity improved sooner than expected after they scaled lockdowns back in May and June, as well as indicators of a stronger recovery in the third quarter.
In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.2 percent, slightly lower than in the June 2020 WEO Update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020 and consistent with expectations of persistent social distancing.
IMF projects global growth at −4.4 percent in 2020, a less severe contraction than forecast in the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.
Vaccine shortage could derail Thailand’s economic recovery
As much of the Asia-Pacific region is gearing up for a 2022 reopening and recovery, Thailand is now lagging behind many countries in vaccine procurement and sluggish vaccine campaign threatens the country’s economic recovery.
China’s new three-child policy highlights risks of aging across emerging Asia
Thailand’s (Baa1 stable) total dependency ratio is set to jump nine percentage points to 51% by 2030 – a faster increase than China’s – which will pressure public and private savings through higher taxes and social spending, reducing innovation and productivity gains.
Population aging in China (A1 stable) and other emerging markets in Asia will hurt economic growth, competitiveness and fiscal revenue, unless productivity gains accelerate, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service.(more…)
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