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Bank cuts Thai 2020 GDP growth outlook to 2.7%

SCB’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has released its latest growth forecast, at 2.7 percent, showing a slow recovery from just 2.5 percent economic growth in 2019

Boris Sullivan

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SCB cuts GDP growth forecast to 3.1%

SCB’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has released its latest forecast, indicating that the Thai economy at the end of 2020 will have grown by 2.7 percent, showing a s recovery from just 2.5 percent economic growth in 2019, thanks to a better performing export sector and improved global economy.

Earlier this week the World Bank also downgraded Thailand’s economic growth outlook for this year to 2.7% .

The EIC expects the Bank of Thailand to maintain the policy rate at 1.25 percent per annum. The center is keeping a close eye on uncertainties between the U.S. and China; the U.S. and EU; the U.S.-Iran conflict; Brexit, and the financial fragility in households and businesses.

The forecast indicates that the Thai economy will still face challenges from the strong Thai baht currently between 29.5 and 30.5 baht per U.S. dollar; the slowdown in consumption and private investment; employment issues; household debt, and the drought disaster.

In 2019, declining exports and growing weaknesses in domestic demand weighed on Thai economic growth.

The baht, which has appreciated by 8.9% since last year, has also dealt a blow to international tourism and merchandise exports, the World Bank said.

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Thai economy continued on a decelerating trend in January

In January 2020, the Thai economy continued to be on a decelerating trend According to a Press Release by the Bank of Thailand

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According to the Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for January 2020 (Bank of Thailand), the Thai economy continued on a path of deceleration in January, contracting from the previous month in the value of merchandise exports excluding gold, manufacturing production, private investment indicators, and public spending.

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Thailand’s banks to reach unbanked customers

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Thai banks slash growth forecast around 2%

Thai growth may be around 2% or less, said two major Thai commercial banks and a senior official of the Bank of Thailand.

Bahar Karaman

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