The Asian Development Bank ADB will revise its forecast on Thailand’s economic growth for this year from 4.9 per cent to 4-4.3 per cent. Luxmon Attapich, senior ADB economist, said the country’s export growth would be adjusted to 8 per cent due to an export slowdown.
She said the ADB earlier predicted outflows of foreign capital from Thailand after an announcement by the US Federal Reserve to scale down its economic stimulus through quantitative easing, adding that the situation in Thailand was less severe than in Indonesia and India due to the kingdom’s solid economic fundamentals and large foreign reserves.
The ADB was not concerned with the high level of household debts given normal repayment, she said. In its report on Asia’s Economic Transformation, the ADB says Thailand is becoming an industrial country given its industrial productivity at higher than 18 per cent compared to gross domestic product GDP and employment in the industrial sector at more than 18 per cent.
Thailand, however, remains a low income country due to its high employment rate of 40 per cent in the agricultural sector compared to the industrial sector, according to the report. With higher per capita income, the Thai government should upgrade the education standard to usher its population into the industrial sector, the report suggests. Becoming an industrial country will boost the people’s income and welfare, and reduce the income gap, says the report. It says the ADB looks forward to an increase in Thailand’s per capita income from US$5,000 to the standard level of US$12,500. MCOT online news
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As much of the Asia-Pacific region is gearing up for a 2022 reopening and recovery, Thailand is now lagging behind many countries in vaccine procurement and sluggish vaccine campaign threatens the country’s economic recovery.
China’s new three-child policy highlights risks of aging across emerging Asia
Thailand’s (Baa1 stable) total dependency ratio is set to jump nine percentage points to 51% by 2030 – a faster increase than China’s – which will pressure public and private savings through higher taxes and social spending, reducing innovation and productivity gains.
Population aging in China (A1 stable) and other emerging markets in Asia will hurt economic growth, competitiveness and fiscal revenue, unless productivity gains accelerate, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service.(more…)
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