Several major Thai banks have drastically reduced their GDP growth forecast for 2020 citing the coronavirus epidemic, drought and fiscal delays.
The coronavirus epidemic, the delayed fiscal budget and the ongoing drought are estimated to shave nearly 280 billion baht off GDP, taking economic growth down to a range of 1.7-2.1%, according to TMB Analytics.
TMB Analytics forecast foreign tourist arrivals of 38.7 million in 2020.
The research unit earlier predicted economic growth would come in at 2.7% this year.
Earlier, the Tourism Authority of Thailand predicted a fall of 2 million tourists from China, the biggest source of visitors, this year.
Last year, Thailand welcomed a record 39.8 million foreign tourists, with Chinese visitors at nearly 11 million. Spending by foreign tourists accounted for 11% of GDP last year.
Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has offered the most pessimistic view yet of Thailand’s 2020 economic growth, slashing its forecast from 2.7% to 2.1% after taking into account the coronavirus epidemic and the delayed fiscal budget.
The biggest impact from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus on Thailand’s tourism sector will be seen this month and next, the research unit said.
The number of foreign travellers is estimated to drop for three straight months in the better-case scenario, four in the base-case scenario and six in the worst-case assumption, resulting in a contraction of 2.5%, 4.6% or 8.1% in 2020, the EIC said.
Growth may be less than 2%, says Bank of Thailand
The economy may grow by less than 2% this year while exports are likely to contract, mainly from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, a senior central bank official said on Thursday to the Bangkok Post.
On February 6, citing coronavirus outbreak, delayed fiscal budget and severe drought conditions, the Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%.
According to the MPC official statement, Thai economy growth would be lower than its previous forecast, due mainly to the new coronavirus outbreak, delay of the 2020 fiscal budget disbursement and drought.
Earlier this week the Thai Cabinet approved the Ministry of Finance’s proposal to introduce monetary and tax-related assistance policies to mitigate the side effects of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China, that has caused a tremor in global public health and the world economy.
Thai economy continued on a decelerating trend in January
In January 2020, the Thai economy continued to be on a decelerating trend According to a Press Release by the Bank of Thailand
According to the Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for January 2020 (Bank of Thailand), the Thai economy continued on a path of deceleration in January, contracting from the previous month in the value of merchandise exports excluding gold, manufacturing production, private investment indicators, and public spending.(more…)
Thailand’s banks to reach unbanked customers
In this Global Platform video, Tan Choon Hin, CEO of United Overseas Bank Thailand, discusses industry trends across ASEAN, including regional integration and the push towards Industry 4.0.
Governments most exposed to coronavirus have strong fiscal and external buffers
Moody’s baseline assumption is that the economic effects of the outbreak will continue for a number of weeks, after which they will tail off and normal economic activity will resume.
As measures to contain the coronavirus and fear of contagion hit consumption and production, downside risks to our GDP growth forecast for China (A1 stable) have increased., says Moody’s Research Announcement.(more…)
APRIL International Care opens up TeleHEALTH service to address Coronavirus worries
The TeleHEALTH service means policyholders do not have to leave their home or workplace to “see” a doctor, with a...
Thailand rolls out New Investment Measures to Boost Economy
The new definition of qualified applicants now includes businesses that have not previously received BOI promotion privileges as long as...
Thailand among top five countries for salary hikes
Thailand is among the top five economies in the world to see real salary increases and is likely to see...