The ongoing coronavirus outbreak will dampen economic growth in China this year, but the scale of the impact remains uncertain and will depend on the duration and intensity of the health crisis, says Fitch Ratings.
Huge uncertainties remain over the impact of the coronavirus on China’s economy. We believe it is still too early to make definitive adjustments to our GDP forecasts at this stage and instead have examined some illustrative scenarios.
The SARS outbreak provides a useful benchmark, but there are significant differences between that epidemic and the latest one.
Notably, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread faster than SARS, and official travel and workplace activity restrictions have been more aggressive.
These factors suggest that the impact of the current outbreak on economic activity on a daily basis may be more intense than SARS, but the impact on GDP will also depend on the length of time taken to contain the virus.
The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will cause damage worth US$2.4-3.4 billion to Southeast Asian nations, the Kasikorn Research Center estimated.
The impact would result from the Covid-related economic slowdown of China that had close ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in terms of trade, investment and tourism, the center reported.
If Covid-19 outbreak is contained in 6 months, the Chinese economic growth may be at 4.7% this year, 1.0% lower than earlier expected. That would cut the ASEAN economic value by US$2.4-3.4 billion equivalent to 0.07-0.11% of ASEAN’s yearly gross domestic product. Damage in Thailand would be moderate at US$500-700 million or 0.09-0.13% of its annual GDP, the research center wrote.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
World Bank cuts Thailand’s GDP growth outlook to 1% in 2021
The World Bank has said that Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow 1% this year, down from the 2.2% projected in July, hit by a spike in COVID-19 cases and a delayed reopening to visitors.
Can border reopening revive tourism in South-East Asia?
In Thailand, where pre-pandemic tourism accounted for 11-12% of GDP, the country lost an estimated $50bn last year as Covid-19...
Thailand dropped from UK’s tough covid-19 travel ‘red list’
Earlier, Thailand was listed among countries with high infection levels that were put on a ‘red list’, requiring arrivals to...
The ASEAN-Russia Trade and Investment Cooperation Work Program
ASEAN and Russia recently agreed to enhance and widen economic cooperation at the 10th ASEAN Economic Ministers (AEM)-Russia Consultations held...
Flexible Workspace Startup Worklounge Debuts with 20+ Luxury Member Lounges in Thailand
Worklounge launches a premium membership granting remote professionals and executives access to exclusive hotel lounges across Thailand. Their platform is...
5 insights to guide ASEAN’s digital generation in a post-pandemic world
We surveyed 86,000 people from six ASEAN countries about their views for a post-pandemic world. The ASEAN Digital Generation Report...