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Covid-19 to cut Asian growth to 2.2%, Thailand -4.8% (ADB)

Restrained largely by slowing exports, Thailand posted paltry growth at 2.4% last year. GDP growth is likely to slow further to –4.8% this year but could pick up to 2.5% in 2021.

Boris Sullivan

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 Regional economic growth in developing Asia will decline sharply in 2020 due to the effects of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, before recovering in 2021, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) annual flagship economic publication.

Excluding Asia’s high-income newly industrialized economies, growth will drop from 5.7% to 2.4% this year before recovering to 6.7% next year, says ADB.

Nine Asian economies that rely on tourism and commodities are likely to shrink, the ADB said, and the hardest hit would be Thailand. 

These economies are: Thailand (-4.8%), Hong Kong (-3.3%), the Maldives (-3.0%), Timor Leste (-2.0%), Fiji (-4.9%), Vanuatu (-1.0%), Cook Islands (-2.2%), Palau (-4.5%) and Samoa (-3.0%).

Restrained largely by slowing exports, Thailand posted paltry growth at 2.4% last year. GDP growth is likely to slow further to –4.8% this year but could pick up to 2.5% in 2021. Risks to the growth forecast remain tilted to the downside as COVID-19 could be especially damaging to an economy heavily dependent on international trade and tourism.

Southeast Asia will track the PRC and decelerate to 1.0% growth in 2020

All economies in the subregion will endure a growth slowdown in 2020 because of COVID-19 and a consequent global slump, especially given their strong trade and investment ties with a slowing PRC.

Thailand, the second-largest economy in the subregion, will likely contract by 4.8% this year, continuing a steady slide in recent years.

Growth in Southeast Asia will decelerate from 4.4% in 2019 to 1.0% in 2020 before rebounding to 4.7% in 2021. All 11 economies in the subregion will post lower growth in 2020 than in 2019 because of COVID-19, especially considering the subregion’s strong trade and investment ties with the PRC.

Indonesia, the largest economy in the subregion, will decelerate from 5.0% in 2019 to 2.5% this year and bounce back to 5.0% in 2021. Tourism-dependent Thailand, the second largest economy in the subregion, is forecast to reverse 2.4% expansion in 2019 with 4.8% contraction before recovering to 2.5% in 2021.

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Economics

Developing Asia’s Economy to Contract 0.7% in 2020 (ADB)

Economies across developing Asia will contract this year for the first time since 1960, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today.

Boris Sullivan

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The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update forecasts -0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for developing Asia this year—marking its first negative economic growth since the early 1960s. 

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Consumer confidence in August up for four straight months

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported on Wednesday the consumer confidence index rose to 51 in August from 50.1 in July, 49.2 in June, 48.2 in May and 47.2 in April.

National News Bureau of Thailand

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The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting has reported that the country’s consumer confidence index in August 2020 increased for four consecutive months, thanks to the government’s various economic stimulus measures.

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COVID-19 reduces Thai household income by 70 percent

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has already decreased Thailand’s monthly household income by 70 percent.

National News Bureau of Thailand

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Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP

The Office of the Royal Society has organized a round-table discussion about the economic hurdles caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has already decreased Thailand’s monthly household income by 70 percent.

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