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Thailand’s export to contract by 7% in 2020

Thailand’s exports could shrink as much as 7% in 2020 showing its worst performance in a decade, or 3.7% if the Covid-19 crisis is contained before September.

Boris Sullivan

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UTCC: Thai export sector to be affected by US-China trade war

The Bank of Thailand and the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecast exports to contract by 7-8 percent this year. 

The Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said that under the worst-case scenario in which the coronavirus crisis exceeds nine months (beyond September), exports could contract by as much as 7.1% in 2020.

Thailand’s export value contracted by 2.7 percent to 246.25 billion USD in 2019 but the COVID-19 pandemic could remove 17.42 billion USD from Thai export value this year, showing the sector’s worst performance in a decade. 

However, if the crisis is contained in September, the downturn could be limited to -3.7%.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has indicated that the gross value of Thai exports in 2019 was 246.244 billion U.S. dollars, showing a 2.65 percent decline from the previous year due to the U.S.-China trade war and the strong Thai baht.

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