Connect with us

Economics

Developing Asia’s Economy to Contract 0.7% in 2020 (ADB)

Economies across developing Asia will contract this year for the first time since 1960, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today.

Boris Sullivan

Published

on

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update forecasts -0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for developing Asia this year—marking its first negative economic growth since the early 1960s. 

Growth will rally to 6.8% in 2021, in part because growth will be measured relative to a weak 2020. This will still leave next year’s output below pre-COVID-19 projections, suggesting an “L”-shaped rather than a “V”-shaped recovery. About three-quarters of the region’s economies are expected to post negative growth in 2020.

Key Messages

  • Developing Asia will contract by 0.7% this year, its first contraction in six decades. Growth will rebound to 6.8% in 2021.
  • The downturn is broad-based—three-fourths of the region’s economies are expected to contract this year. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an important exception.
  • Depressed demand and low oil prices offset supply disruptions, keeping regional inflation at 2.9% in 2020, and trimming it to 2.3% in 2021.

Thailand to contract 8% this year

Thailand’s economy is expected to shrink by 8%, compared to 6.5% in the previous ADB assessment.

Strict quarantines and travel restrictions inflicted brutal second-quarter economic declines in the subregion, requiring steep downgrades to GDP growth forecasts for almost every economy.

The quarter featured double-digit contractions in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, all of which are now expected to shrink by or more this year.

“Most economies in the Asia and Pacific region can expect a difficult growth path for the rest of 2020,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “The economic threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic remains potent, as extended first waves or recurring outbreaks could prompt further containment measures. 

Consistent and coordinated steps to address the pandemic, with policy priorities focusing on protecting lives and livelihoods of people who are already most vulnerable, and ensuring the safe return to work and restart of business activities, will continue to be crucial to ensure the region’s eventual recovery is inclusive and sustainable.” 

A prolonged COVID-19 pandemic remains the biggest downside risk to the region’s growth outlook this year and next year. To mitigate the risk, governments in the region have delivered wide-ranging policy responses, including policy support packages—mainly income support—amounting to $3.6 trillion, equivalent to about 15% of regional GDP.

Other downside risks arise from geopolitical tensions, including an escalation of the trade and technology conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as well as financial vulnerabilities that could be exacerbated by a prolonged pandemic.

Comments

Economics

Thai economy to grow 4% in 2021 following 6.5% decline in 2020

The World Bank is now expecting the Thai economy to see 4% growth this year, and a 4.7% growth in 2022, despite current challenges from the new wave of COVID-19 infections.

Olivier Languepin

Published

on

Crowded downtown area in Bangkok

The World Bank now expects that the Thai economy to expand by 4 per cent in 2021, according to the latest World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor report “Restoring Incomes, Recovering Jobs” released on Wednesday (Jan 20).

(more…)
Continue Reading

Banking

BoT sees mild impact of new COVID-19 wave on the economy

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) does not see the new wave of COVID-19 infections as having as much of an impact on the economy as the first wave, as fewer businesses have had to be suspended.

National News Bureau of Thailand

Published

on

BANGKOK (NNT) – Despite a new and wider wave of COVID-19 infections in the country, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has assessed that the economic impact of the situation will not be as severe as the first wave as the effects of the virus are not as pronounced, and public health preparations, including plans for vaccination, are in place.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Economics

COVID-19 brings first consumer confidence drop in 3 months

Consumer confidence in December 2020 was measured at 50.1 points, down from 52.4 the previous month. Economic confidence was also down to 43.5 from 45.6 points.

National News Bureau of Thailand

Published

on

BANGKOK (NNT) – Concerns linked to the new wave of COVID-19 infections has weighed on both daily life and business, resulting in the first drop in the Consumer Confidence Index in 3 months.

(more…)
Continue Reading

Trending