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World Bank raises 2016 oil price forecast to $41 per barrel

Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

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Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production, mainly U.S. shale.

A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialize at a meeting in mid-April.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,”

said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodities Markets Outlook.

“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected.”

All main commodity indexes tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 from the year before due to persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities – which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials — weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.

Energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are due to fall 19.3 percent in 2016 from the previous year, a more gradual drop than the 24.7 percent slide forecast in January. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and minerals, agriculture, and fertilizers, are due to decline 5.1 percent this year, a downward revision from the 3.7 percent drop forecast in January. Read more.

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Economics

Thai exports fall 7.94% in August

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has indicated that Thai export sector has improved for two consecutive months in August with a smaller than expected drop of 7.94%

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seaport during golden hour

Thai exports fell by 7.94 per cent to US$20.21 billion in August from a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday, a smaller than expected drop, according to Reuters.

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Economics

Developing Asia’s Economy to Contract 0.7% in 2020 (ADB)

Economies across developing Asia will contract this year for the first time since 1960, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today.

Boris Sullivan

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The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update forecasts -0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for developing Asia this year—marking its first negative economic growth since the early 1960s. 

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Economics

Consumer confidence in August up for four straight months

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported on Wednesday the consumer confidence index rose to 51 in August from 50.1 in July, 49.2 in June, 48.2 in May and 47.2 in April.

National News Bureau of Thailand

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The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting has reported that the country’s consumer confidence index in August 2020 increased for four consecutive months, thanks to the government’s various economic stimulus measures.

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