Economics
Forecasters Consensus shows Thailand’s growth outlook above 4%
Expectations for the Thai economy to grow by at least 4 per cent this year have been corroborated by several research houses pointing to recovering external demand and investment.
A spate of public and private positive forecasts have revised up Thailand’s GDP growth projection for 2018 to over 4 per cent.
Earlier this week the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) increased the group’s 2018 GDP projection from growth of 3.8-4.5% to 4.0-4.5% after witnessing better sentiment over the first two months of the year.
Steady gains in Thailand’s export and tourism receipts
According to Bank of Thailand latest press release, tourism registered a growth of 10.9 per cent January and 13.9 per cent in February mostly on the back of Chinese arrivals
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) also cites the sustained recovery of the global economy and the steady gains in Thailand’s export and tourism receipts.
JSCCIB chairman Chen Namchaisiri said Thailand’s economic indicators for the first two months of 2018 show consistent expansion in overseas shipments on the back of the positive global economic conditions, as well as the tourism boom.
But the private sector has expressed concerns that public investment may not grow as forecast after contracting 6% year-on-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 (October-December 2017).
Others economic forecasters have also revise up the country’s economy growth projections thanks to public investment along with the robust export and tourism sectors.
Kasikorn Research Centre (Kresearch) is sticking with a forecast of 4.5 per cent export growth, amid concerns over a trade war. It estimates economic growth of 4 per cent for this year, shading earlier estimates.
The SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) has pencilled in economic growth of 4 per cent for this year, up from an earlier estimate.
EIC expects the Thai economy to continue expanding at 4.0%YOY in 2018, but the concentration of growth as in Q4/2017 is likely to remain. Given the stronger outlook of the global economy and declining risks of economic slowdown in major economies, Thailand’s merchandise exports and tourism will likely remain key growth drivers this year.
The centre, a unit of Siam Commercial Bank, said exports and the number of tourist arrivals are projected to see year-on-year expansion of 5 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.
Economics
Thai fruit exports to FTA markets up 107 percent
China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Australia and Chile are top importers of Thai fruits, especially fresh durian, mangosteen, longan and mango. Thai exporters are able to benefit from FTA privileges.
BANGKOK (NNT) – Thailand’s fruit exports continue to increase, despite the sluggish global economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with key trade partners being countries that have free trade agreements (FTAs) with the kingdom.
Economics
The Future of Asia: greener but with a public and private debt hangover
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a perfect storm, destroying jobs, worsening poverty and inequality, and creating a public and private debt problem—especially for countries and firms already in fragile financial health beforehand
The Sydney Opera resumed live performances and the city of Melbourne recently hosted the Australian Open tennis tournament with fans (mostly) in attendance.
BANGKOK (NNT) – The government’s 50:50 co-pay campaign expiring on 31st March may not be getting an immediate campaign extension. The Minister of Finance says campaign evaluation is needed to improve future campaigns.
The Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith today announced the government may not be able to reach a conclusion on the extension of the 50:50 co-pay campaign in time for the current 31st March campaign end date, as evaluations are needed to better improve the campaign.
Originally introduced last year, the 50:50 campaign is a financial aid campaign for people impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the government subsidizes up to half the price of purchases at participating stores, with a daily cap on the subsidy amount of 150 baht, and a 3,500 baht per person subsidy limit over the entire campaign.
The campaign has already been extended once, with the current end date set for 31st March.
The Finance Minister said that payout campaigns for the general public are still valid in this period, allowing time for the 50:50 campaign to be assessed, and to address reports of fraud at some participating stores.
The Fiscal Police Office Director General and the Ministry of Finance Spokesperson Kulaya Tantitemit, said today that a bigger quota could be offered in Phase 3 of the 50:50 campaign beyond the 15 million people enrolled in the first two phases, while existing participants will need to confirm their identity if they want to participate in Phase 3, without the need to fill out the registration form.
Mrs Kulaya said the campaign will still be funded by emergency loan credit allocated for pandemic compensation, which still has about 200 billion baht available as of today.
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