Economics
Coronavirus will hurt spending in China, with spillover to global companies
Coronavirus will hurt spending in China, with spillover to global companies, says Moody’s Macroeconomics – Global update.
On Wednesday, the World Health Organization said that China’s coronavirus has infected nearly 6,000 people domestically so far, with an additional 68 confirmed cases in 15 other countries.
The primary impact is on human health. However, the risk of contagion is affecting economic activity and financial markets. The immediate and most significant economic impact is in China (A1 stable) but will reverberate globally, given the importance of China in global growth as well as in global company revenue.
By sector, the coronavirus will likely have the largest negative impact on goods and services sectors within and outside of China that rely on Chinese consumers and intermediary products.
China’s annual GDP growth forecast unchanged so far, but composition could shift
In our baseline, we expect the outbreak to have a temporary impact on China’s economy and for annual GDP growth in China to remain in line with our forecast of 5.8% in 2020.
However, the composition of growth will likely shift because of a dampening of consumption in the first quarter, potentially offset by stimulus measures.
Nonetheless, there is still a high level of uncertainty around the length and intensity of the outbreak, and we will review our forecasts as conditions evolve.
Excerpt from “Moody’s Sector Comment“, 30 January 2020 issue.
Economics
Covid-19 to cut Asian growth to 2.2%, Thailand -4.8% (ADB)
Restrained largely by slowing exports, Thailand posted paltry growth at 2.4% last year. GDP growth is likely to slow further to –4.8% this year but could pick up to 2.5% in 2021.
Regional economic growth in developing Asia will decline sharply in 2020 due to the effects of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, before recovering in 2021, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) annual flagship economic publication.
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BOI Announces Measures to Facilitate Investors Affected by COVID-19 Situation
The Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) said in a statement that it remains as committed as ever to serve the needs of investors, and announced practical measures to ensure the continuity of service to support companies
The Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) said in a statement that it remains as committed as ever to serve the needs of investors, and announced practical measures to ensure the continuity of service to support companies as economic activity in this critical period is affected by the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the Emergency Decree put in place by the government to control the situation.
(more…)Economics
EAP Countries Brace for Economic Shock of COVID-19
Growth in the developing EAP region is projected to slow to 2.1 percent in the baseline and to negative 0.5 in the lower case scenario in 2020, from an estimated 5.8 percent in 2019.
The virus that triggered a supply shock in China has now caused a global shock. Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), recovering from trade tensions and struggling with COVID-19, now face the prospect of a global financial shock and recession.
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