On Wednesday, the World Health Organization said that China’s coronavirus has infected nearly 6,000 people domestically so far, with an additional 68 confirmed cases in 15 other countries.
The primary impact is on human health. However, the risk of contagion is affecting economic activity and financial markets. The immediate and most significant economic impact is in China (A1 stable) but will reverberate globally, given the importance of China in global growth as well as in global company revenue.
By sector, the coronavirus will likely have the largest negative impact on goods and services sectors within and outside of China that rely on Chinese consumers and intermediary products.
China’s annual GDP growth forecast unchanged so far, but composition could shift
In our baseline, we expect the outbreak to have a temporary impact on China’s economy and for annual GDP growth in China to remain in line with our forecast of 5.8% in 2020.
However, the composition of growth will likely shift because of a dampening of consumption in the first quarter, potentially offset by stimulus measures.
Nonetheless, there is still a high level of uncertainty around the length and intensity of the outbreak, and we will review our forecasts as conditions evolve.
Excerpt from “Moody’s Sector Comment“, 30 January 2020 issue.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
World Bank cuts Thailand’s GDP growth outlook to 1% in 2021
The World Bank has said that Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow 1% this year, down from the 2.2% projected in July, hit by a spike in COVID-19 cases and a delayed reopening to visitors.
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