A new study by UNCTAD looks at the repercussions of existing US and Chinese tariff hikes, as well as the effects of the increase scheduled for 1 March.
“Because of the size of their economies, the tariffs imposed by United States and China will inevitably have significant repercussions on international trade,”Pamela Coke-Hamilton, head of UNCTAD’s international trade division
The study ( Key Statistics and Trends in Trade Policy 2018) underlines that bilateral tariffs would do little to help domestic firms in their respective markets.
Countries that are expected to benefit the most from US-China tensions are those which are more competitive and have the economic capacity to replace US and Chinese firms.
The study indicates that European Union exports are those likely to increase the most, capturing about $70 billion of US-China bilateral trade ($50 billion of Chinese exports to the United States, and $20 billion of US exports to China).
Japan, Mexico and Canada will each capture more than $20 billion.
East Asia suffers most from trade war
The high volume of Chinese exports affected by US tariffs is likely to hit East Asian value chains the hardest, with UNCTAD estimating that they could contract by about $160 billion.
The higher cost of US-China trade would prompt companies to shift away from current eastern Asian supply chains.
But the shift would not primarily benefit US companies, according to the report.
“The effect of US-China tariffs would be mainly distortionary. US-China bilateral trade will decline and replaced by trade originating in other countries”Pamela Coke-Hamilton, head of UNCTAD’s international trade division
82% captured by firms in other countries
The study estimates that of the $250 billion in Chinese exports subject to US tariffs, about 82% will be captured by firms in other countries, about 12% will be retained by Chinese firms, and only about 6% will be captured by US firms.
“Our analysis shows that while bilateral tariffs are not very effective in protecting domestic firms, they are very valid instruments to limit trade from the targeted country”, Ms. Coke-Hamilton said.
Similarly, of the approximately $85 billion in US exports subject to China’s tariffs, about 85% will be captured by firms in other countries, US firms will retain less than 10%, while Chinese firms will capture only about 5%.
The results are consistent across different sectors, from machinery to wood products, and furniture, communication equipment, chemicals to precision instruments.
Sony to shift smartphone plant to Thailand
Sony’s share of the smartphone market has fallen sharply in recent years
BEIJING/TOKYO, March 28 (Reuters) – Sony Corp will close its smartphone plant in Beijing in the next few days, a company spokesman said, as the Japanese electronics giant aims to cut costs in the loss-making business.
Sony will shift production to its plant in Thailand in a bid to halve costs and turn the smartphone business profitable in the year from April 2020, the spokesman said on Thursday.
The decision to scale back its smartphone workforce, which could see up to 2,000 of the total 4,000 jobs cut by March 2020, is part of a move to reduce fixed costs in the business, and also includes procurement reform.
Sony’s share of the smartphone market has fallen sharply in recent years — from more than 3% in 2010, according to the research portal Statistica — to less than 1% currently.
It has struggled to compete against leaders Apple, Samsung Electronics and Huawei Technologies, all of which are racing to develop new 5G devices.
Sony’s smartphone business was one of the few weak spots in its otherwise robust earnings, bracing for a loss of 95 billion yen ($863 million) for this financial year. ($1 = 110.1200 yen).
How will Thailand’s election affect China?
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According to Chang Xiang a researcher at the Thai-Chinese Strategic Research Center at the National Research Council of Thailand, China’s investment in Thailand will not be affected much by the result of the general election.(more…)
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