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Thailand and Indonesia are emerging as production hub in Southeast Asia EV Outlook

Passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to reach nearly 2.7 million units in 2040, comprising 56% of total sales for that year, according to BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition scenario.

by J. Allan
September 23, 2024
in Business, China
Reading Time: 10 mins read
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Thailand and Indonesia are emerging as production hub in Southeast Asia EV Outlook
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According to data provided by Statista, the electric vehicle market in Southeast Asia will generate revenues of USD 6,587.0 million by 2024. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are at the forefront of electric vehicle production in Asia, but Thailand and Indonesia are quickly emerging as production hub.

  • What has been the performance of the EV industry in Southeast Asia?
    • Chinese presence boosts EV demand
    • Electric two-wheeler market
    • Investment in EV charging needs to ramp up
  • The main factors behind the growth of the EV industry in Asia
    • Government Policies and Incentives
    • Technological Advancements
    • Economic Growth and Urbanization
    • Consumer Awareness and Preferences
    • Industry Collaboration and Investment
  • Challenges to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Southeast Asia
    • Lack of public charging infrastructure
    • High cost of ownership
    • Safety concerns and driving range
    • Energy sources and reliability of the power supply

This industry will have an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 3.88%, resulting in a market volume of USD 7,967.0 million by 2029. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are at the forefront of electric vehicle production in Asia, but Thailand and Indonesia are quickly emerging as production hub.

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In Thailand, the largest automotive manufacturing base in Southeast Asia, policies are being implemented to transform the country into a production hub for EVs within the ASEAN region. The government’s ambitious plan aims to achieve 50% EV sales by 2030, supported by subsidies for EV purchases and tax reductions on sales. Additionally, corporate tax exemptions are offered to companies investing in EV production facilities and charging infrastructure.

The Southeast Asian electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing significant growth and is projected to become a global EV industry hub.

  • Leading Nations: Thailand and Indonesia are emerging as EV production hubs within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
  • Production Hub Potential: BloombergNEF highlights Southeast Asia’s potential as the next global EV production hub.
  • New Production Launches: Companies like BYD, MG (SAIC Motor), Ora (Great Wall Motor), Hozon Auto (Neta), and Vinfast have announced production starts in Southeast Asia from 2024 onwards.
  • Market Size and Growth: The EV market in Southeast Asia is expected to reach a revenue of US$6,587.0 million by 2024 and US$7,967.0 million by 2029, indicating an annual growth rate of 3.88%.
  • Positive Outlook for 2024-2026: The domestic EV industry in Southeast Asia is expected to remain positive over the next few years due to strong demand and supply.
  • Global Adoption: Despite strong growth, Southeast Asia, India, and Brazil still lag behind the global average in EV adoption.
  • Emerging Markets: Southeast Asia and Brazil are leading the increase in sales of electric cars in emerging markets, even from a low base.

Overall, the Southeast Asian EV market is characterized by strong growth potential, driven by government initiatives, industry investments, and rising consumer demand.

What has been the performance of the EV industry in Southeast Asia?

Southeast Asia is making progress in promoting the use and local production of electric vehicles. In 2023, the sales of passenger EVs more than tripled, and several major Chinese EV manufacturers have established manufacturing facilities in the region, with more planning to do so in the near future. The growing competition between new and established automakers, along with the decreasing costs of battery manufacturing, are expected to drive the adoption of EVs in the region in the coming decades.

Chinese presence boosts EV demand

Annual passenger EV sales in Southeast Asia more than tripled to more than 153,500 in 2023, driven by policy support and a growing presence of Chinese automakers in the region. Sales in Thailand rose more than four times to 86,400 EVs while customers in Vietnam are benefiting from Vinfast’s growing ambitions.

Electric two-wheeler market

Southeast Asia’s electric two-wheeler market stalled in 2023, growing by just 3.8% annually, with sales falling in several markets. Vietnam remained the region’s biggest electric two-wheeler market with more than 80% of the vehicles sold throughout Southeast Asia. Several local and international companies are now offering electric two-wheelers that can better compete with popular internal combustion engine vehicles.

Investment in EV charging needs to ramp up

In the Economic Transition Scenario, electricity demand from electric vehicles (EVs) is projected to increase to 85 terawatt-hours by 2040, up from only 322 gigawatt-hours in 2023. To support this growing fleet of EVs, the region will require approximately 11.5 million chargers and a total investment of $3.1 billion by 2040.

Passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to reach nearly 2.7 million units in 2040, comprising 56% of total sales for that year, according to BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition scenario. Yet, vehicles with internal combustion engines are expected to constitute 76% of the region’s fleet in 2040. To meet their net-zero targets, governments in Southeast Asia will need to expedite EV adoption significantly in the coming decade.

In India, electric car registrations increased by 70% year-on-year to 80,000, compared to a growth rate of less than 10% for total car sales.

In Thailand, electric car registrations more than quadrupled year-on-year to nearly 90,000, reaching a notable sales share of 10%, comparable to the share in the United States.

The first half of 2024 saw positive patterns in electric vehicle sales across the Asian continent.

During the first half of the year, China sold approximately 4.6 million battery-electric vehicles.  This was followed by growth in sales in the Japanese and South Korean markets.

Malaysia experienced a notable 112% increase in electric vehicle sales, with 6,617 units sold in the first half of 2024 compared to 3,117 units in the same period in 2023.

The main factors behind the growth of the EV industry in Asia

Over the past few fears the EV industry in Asia has rapidly grown, some of the main factors behind that growth are:

Government Policies and Incentives

One of the most significant factors is the strong support from regional governments. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea have implemented a range of policies to promote EV adoption. These include subsidies for EV purchases, tax incentives, and stringent emissions regulations. For instance, China has extended its subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) and continues to enforce its dual credit policy, which mandates automakers to produce a certain percentage of EVs. Such policies make EVs more affordable and attractive to consumers.

Technological Advancements

Technological advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure have also played a pivotal role. Improvements in battery efficiency, energy density, and cost reduction have made EVs more competitive with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Companies like CATL in China and LG Energy Solution in South Korea are leading the way in battery innovation. Additionally, the expansion of fast-charging networks across major cities and highways has alleviated range anxiety, making EVs a more practical choice for daily use.

Economic Growth and Urbanization

Asia’s rapid economic growth and urbanization have increased the demand for sustainable and efficient transportation solutions. As cities become more congested and air quality concerns rise, EVs offer a cleaner alternative to conventional vehicles. Urban areas in countries like China and India are seeing a surge in EV adoption as part of broader efforts to reduce pollution and improve public health.

Consumer Awareness and Preferences

Consumer awareness and changing preferences are also driving the growth of the EV market. There is a growing recognition of the environmental benefits of EVs, and consumers are increasingly prioritizing sustainability in their purchasing decisions. Marketing campaigns and educational initiatives have helped to highlight the advantages of EVs, such as lower operating costs and reduced environmental impact.

Industry Collaboration and Investment

Finally, collaboration between automakers, technology companies, and governments has been instrumental. Joint ventures and partnerships are fostering innovation and scaling production capabilities. Significant investments in research and development are leading to the introduction of new models with improved features and performance.

Challenges to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Southeast Asia

The journey towards widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Southeast Asia is not without its challenges. Despite the region’s potential and commitment to sustainable transportation, several key obstacles must be addressed to facilitate a smooth transition from traditional vehicles to EVs.

Lack of public charging infrastructure

One of the primary challenges is the lack of public charging infrastructure. The development of a comprehensive network of charging stations is crucial to alleviate range anxiety among potential EV consumers and ensure convenient and reliable access to charging facilities.

High cost of ownership

The high cost of ownership remains a significant barrier. While EV prices are expected to decrease over time, currently, they are still relatively high compared to traditional vehicles. This price difference can deter consumers from making the switch to electric mobility.

Safety concerns and driving range

Safety concerns, driving range, and the operation and maintenance of EVs also play a role in consumer hesitation. Ensuring that EVs can meet the demands of daily use in terms of range and reliability, as well as establishing clear safety standards, is essential for building consumer trust.

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Energy sources and reliability of the power supply

Another challenge is the energy sources and reliability of the power supply. For EVs to truly contribute to sustainability goals, the electricity used to charge them should come from renewable sources. However, the current energy mix in Southeast Asia still heavily relies on fossil fuels, which could undermine the environmental benefits of EVs.

Moreover, the transition to electric buses and fleets faces hurdles, especially in regions where informal transit systems dominate. The fragmented ownership of these systems makes it difficult to implement large-scale EV deployment strategies.

In hot climates, the need for air conditioning in electric buses can significantly increase energy usage, which poses additional challenges for their deployment. Furthermore, the susceptibility to flooding in some areas may limit the suitability of certain EV models.

Lastly, the lack of formal parking spaces and the prevalence of illegal parking in many Southeast Asian cities could hinder the development of charging infrastructure, as secure and accessible parking is a prerequisite for installing charging stations.

Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach involving government policies, market incentives, and technological advancements. By tackling these issues head-on, Southeast Asia can accelerate its EV adoption and play a pivotal role in the global shift towards sustainable transportation.

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