AMRO forecasts ASEAN+3 growth at 4.2% in 2025; domestic demand supports growth, but US-China tariffs pose risks. Inflation remains moderate, while potential financial uncertainties persist.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has projected a 4.2 percent growth rate for the ASEAN+3 region in 2025, according to its latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO).
Key takeaways
- AMRO projects a 4.2% growth rate for ASEAN+3 in 2025, supported by domestic demand and export growth, despite trade tensions.
- ASEAN nations are expected to outperform the Plus-3 economies, with growth projected at 4.8% compared to 4.0% for China, Japan, and Korea.
- Inflation is expected to remain stable across most ASEAN+3 nations, though risks from global commodity prices and US economic shifts could complicate regional policies.
This growth is expected to be supported by strong domestic demand and export expansion, though challenges remain, particularly from escalating trade tensions and the potential for higher tariffs.
For 2024, the region saw consistent growth of 4.2 percent, driven by strong performance in several ASEAN countries. However, the Plus-3 economies, China, Japan, and Korea showed slightly lower outputs. Inflation moderated to 1.7 percent by the end of 2024, attributed to easing global energy and transport prices.
AMRO has slightly downgraded its 2025 growth forecast to 4.2 percent, down from the 4.4 percent projected in October 2024.
The potential reimposition of higher US tariffs on China later in the year is expected to particularly affect the Plus-3 economies, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.0 percent for these nations. Meanwhile, ASEAN countries are projected to grow at a more robust 4.8 percent.
AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor highlighted that the global tech upcycle boosted export performance in 2024, but rising trade tensions could dampen external demand, posing a risk to the region’s economic outlook.
Inflation and policy considerations
Price stability is expected to persist across most ASEAN+3 nations, although some countries like Lao PDR and Myanmar could experience inflationary pressures, with rates rising to 2.1 percent due to stronger domestic demand and supply-side changes.
However, uncertainties remain, including the potential impact of rising global commodity prices and adverse weather conditions.
Additionally, shifts in US economic policy could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, adding further complexity to regional monetary policy decisions.
While regional central banks have begun easing policies, AMRO cautioned that rising US interest rate expectations could create a divergence in monetary strategies across the ASEAN+3 region.
AMRO’s comprehensive analysis, including the flagship AREO 2025 report, will be released in April 2025, providing further insights into the region’s economic prospects.
