Thailand’s Strategic Response to Impending U.S. Tariffs

Thailand unveils a $15 billion stimulus package aimed at boosting infrastructure, enhancing competitiveness, and strengthening resilience against global challenges, signaling a move away from cash handouts.

Thailand’s Economic Stimulus Initiative

Thailand has introduced a US$15 billion economic stimulus package to protect its export-driven economy from global challenges, particularly U.S. tariffs. This strategy shifts from previous cash handouts to emphasize long-term investments. The goal is to enhance competitiveness, boost domestic growth, and increase resilience against external pressures.

Tackling the U.S. Tariff Issue

U.S. Tariffs & Trade Risks: New tariffs (up to 25%) threaten industries like semiconductors, automotive, electronics, and agriculture, potentially causing export losses of US$7–8 billion. The government aims to counteract this by negotiating adjustments, diversifying trade partners, and boosting U.S. imports.

New U.S. tariffs threaten key Thai industries, including semiconductors, automotive components, electronics, and agriculture. Some products could face tariffs of up to 25 percent, significantly reducing Thailand’s export competitiveness.

Without intervention, officials estimate annual export losses of US$7–8 billion. With the U.S. accounting for over 18 percent of Thai exports, the ripple effects could reduce factory orders, strain supply chains, and trigger job losses.

To counter these risks, the government is combining stimulus measures with trade strategies, including boosting imports of U.S. goods to reduce the bilateral trade surplus, negotiating for tariff adjustments, and opening new international market channels to reduce overdependence on vulnerable export sectors.

The four pillars of Thailand’s stimulus plan

The Thai government has structured the US$15 billion stimulus package around four distinct pillars, each targeting a critical part of the economy.

The first pillar is infrastructure investment, channeling funds into major projects in transport, energy, and digital networks to modernize the economic foundation and enhance Thailand’s role in global trade.

The second pillar focuses on small and medium enterprises (SMEs), expanding access to financing, technical support, and new market opportunities to help these firms survive short-term shocks and scale for long-term growth.

The third pillar centers on helping businesses pivot toward new markets and product categories, strengthening Thailand’s ability to adapt to shifting global demands, and reducing exposure to concentrated trade risks.

The fourth pillar targets the tourism sector, with improvements to tourism infrastructure, global marketing campaigns, and efforts to attract higher-spending international travelers, supporting a full recovery from pandemic disruptions.

Economic Performance Context

In late 2024, Thailand’s economy grew by 3.2% year-on-year, marking its strongest annual growth since 2022. Exports, crucial to the economy, account for 65.45% of GDP, with the U.S. as the largest market at US$55 billion in 2024. Despite a solid trade base, the economy faces issues like negative inflation and climbing public debt.

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