BANGKOK (NNT) – The government’s economic stimuli has successfully nudged the Consumer Confidence Index in November 2020 into continued growth for a second month, with the score ranked at a 9-month high, since March this year.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released by the University of the Thai Chambers of Commerce (UTCC) for November 2020, scored 52.4 points, appreciably higher than the 50.9 points in October, with the sentiment index improving from 58.5 to 60.1 points.
The UTCC says consumers still have concerns regarding political stability in light of several protests in October, which has brought down the Political Situation Index down to a 14-year low, as well as concerns on the slow recovering economy and the prospect of increasing unemployment in the future from COVID-19 crisis.
These concerns have however been countered by the government’s economic stimuli, and the improving farm products pricing, including rice, rubber, and oil palm, resulting in the recovering purchasing power in many provinces.
Along with November 2020 CCI, the overall economic sentiment index has improved to 45.6, with job opportunity score now at 50 points, and the score for future income improved to 61.6. Scores from these indices show an across the board improvement, albeit at a small level.
Mr Thanawat Phonwichai, the UTCC President and chief advisor to the UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting said the government’s economic stimuli will continue generating no less than 100 billion baht cashflow through Q1 2021, and pushing the economy to grow by 2 percent.
He said the government could expand these numbers to generate 50 billion baht more cashflow, and push the national GDP in Q1 2021 to grow by 3-4%, if it decides to extend the current stimulating campaigns, including the living allowances to persons holding the state welfare cards, the Travel Together tourism subsidy campaign, and the campaign promoting tourism among senior citizens.
Thailand’s economic growth expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023
Although the economy would recover next year, the recovery is still substantially below potential level resulting in a large output loss and could affect Thailand’s potential economic growth in the future with the economy expected to return to 2019 levels in mid-2023.
The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), one of Thailand’s largest commercial banks, said in its latest economic outlook report that the country’s economy may wait until the second semester of 2023 to return to 2019 growth levels.(more…)
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