Thailand’s Twin Challenges: Earthquake and Trade War

Thailand faces the twin challenges of recovering from a catastrophic earthquake and addressing the economic instability linked to a potential trade war. The earthquake has caused significant human and infrastructural devastation, while the threat of a trade war jeopardizes long-term economic stability, adding further complexity to recovery efforts.

Trade War Pressures

Simultaneously, Thailand faces economic challenges from a potential trade war, primarily with the U.S., which imposed tariffs, including a proposed 36% on certain imports. This threatens Thailand’s $55 billion export market, with the U.S. being its largest export destination, prompting fears of economic slowdown and calls for government stimulus. Thailand is countering by planning to increase U.S. imports, like LNG, and negotiating trade terms, with talks set for April 23, 2025.

Combined Challenges

While the earthquake caused immediate physical and humanitarian damage, the trade war poses long-term economic threats. Though not directly linked, the economic strain from tariffs could hinder Thailand’s ability to fund recovery efforts, creating a “double whammy” effect on its resilience.