Shifting Supply Chains from China to Southeast Asia

Geopolitical factors, rather than purely commercial considerations, are now the primary drivers of supply-chain shifts, with government pressure likely to intensify over the decade.

China’s emergence as the global manufacturing hub began with its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. China then quickly improved its supply chains and productivity to manufacture higher value products at a low production cost.

Key Takeaways

• China’s rising production costs have prompted the shift of supply chains to Southeast Asia, particularly for labor-intensive goods.
• The Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic have accelerated the relocation of manufacturing bases from China to countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
• Southeast Asia’s increasing investment in infrastructure and sustainable energy is making it an attractive destination for manufacturing, with potential to improve the region’s human capital and economic growth.

Prior to this, China had already implemented export-friendly policies, such as VAT exemptions on most exported products and a permissive regulatory environment. Combined with a large pool of low-cost labor and rapid infrastructure development, China solidified its position as a manufacturing powerhouse. Additionally, the deliberate devaluation of its currency in 1994 by the Chinese government further enhanced its competitive advantage.

Reasons for the Shift

However, as labor costs rose, companies started looking elsewhere. In the mid-2010s, more labor-intensive industries, such as textiles, began moving to other countries. Recently, supply chains have been shifting from China to Southeast Asia for various reasons:

1. Pandemic-Induced Shift: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains globally. Chinese corporations sought to circumvent tariffs (especially from the US), while foreign multinationals faced delays and bottlenecks. Violations of intellectual property rights in China also raised concerns.
2. Rising Costs in China: Labor costs in China have significantly increased, leading companies to relocate for more labor-intensive goods. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia have become attractive alternatives.
3. Security Concerns: US security concerns regarding Chinese-manufactured electronics products (e.g., Huawei) prompted diversification.
4. Trade Policies and Tariffs: The imposition of tariffs and trade restrictions by the United States and other countries on Chinese goods has further incentivized companies to diversify their supply chains and reduce their reliance on China. Southeast Asian countries often have more favorable trade agreements and lower tariffs, making them more attractive for exports.
5. Proximity to Major Markets: Southeast Asia is strategically located near major markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea, providing easy access to these markets for companies operating in the region.
6. Infrastructure Development: Southeast Asian countries have been investing heavily in infrastructure development, improving transportation networks, ports, and logistics facilities. This enhanced infrastructure makes it easier and more efficient for companies to operate in these countries.
7. Political Stability: Southeast Asian countries generally offer greater political stability compared to some other regions, reducing the risk of disruptions to supply chains due to political unrest or conflicts.

Companies like Apple and Samsung have already moved parts of their production out of China:

• Apple: It shifted parts of iPhone production to India and assembled some MacBooks in the US. Vietnam has become essential for producing AirPods.
• Samsung: It stopped smartphone manufacturing in China and now bases its global production in Vietnam.
• Nike: Nike’s suppliers have been relocating production to Southeast Asia and Africa.

Many multinational companies have been gradually shifting segments of their supply chain out of China due to cost considerations. The US-China trade war accelerated this trend, prompting businesses to explore alternative manufacturing locations. However, executing the “+1” strategy involves massive coordination across different departments within an enterprise. Despite spending years on planning, some companies have yet to fully implement their diversification plans.

While some manufacturers have moved manufacturing capacity to Southeast Asian nations to circumvent tariffs resulting from the US-China conflict, parts of their supply chains serving the domestic Chinese market are still kept within China.

Evaluating Potential Beneficiaries in Asia

The shift of supply chains from China to Southeast Asia, driven by factors such as rising production costs in China, the impact of the Sino-US trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased investments in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with a focus on manufacturing, particularly in industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and sustainable energy.

The move is expected to boost the value-added manufacturing component to GDP in Southeast Asia and improve the quality of economic growth. However, potential risks include political changes and regulatory uncertainties. Overall, the prospects for Southeast Asia are seen as exciting due to the ongoing momentum of supply chain shifts from China.

Southeast Asia: The New Production Hub

Southeast Asia remains attractive as supply chains shift away from China. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and others offer competitive advantages:

• Lower labor costs compared to China.
• Reduced reliance on Chinese production due to geopolitical tensions.
• Mitigation of impact from China’s economic slowdown.
• A sweet spot for investment opportunities .

Several Asian economies stand to benefit from supply chain shifts away from China. Here are some key observations:

1. Vietnam: Vietnam has deftly ridden the initial relocation wave, leveraging pre-existing domestic production networks and supply chain connections with China. However, its relatively small-scale infrastructure remains a challenge.
2. India: India’s size positions it well to match China’s edge in low-cost, large-scale manufacturing. Policy reforms and improving macro stability are clear advantages, although high logistics costs and low labor productivity remain hurdles.
3. Southeast Asia: While higher production costs and lack of scale hinder some Southeast Asian economies, a few may carve out niches in areas where they have a comparative advantage. For instance:

• Malaysia excels in the semiconductor industry.
• Indonesia and Thailand show promise in the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.

Supply chain shifts away from China will be gradual and industry-specific, with some sectors experiencing quicker rerouting of manufacturing and logistics activity than others. The shift of supply chains from China to Southeast Asia is driven by economic factors, geopolitical considerations, and the need for diversification. As companies adapt to changing dynamics, Southeast Asia emerges as a key player in global manufacturing. Countries in South-east Asia such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are expected to benefit the most from the diversification of supply chains away from China.