The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased Thailand’s GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for the current year, a 0.2 percentage point rise from the earlier prediction, while retaining the forecast of 3.1% growth for the following year.
- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report maintains global economic growth forecast at 3.2% for this year and raises it to 3.3% for next year, with adjustments in specific country forecasts.
- The report lowers the growth forecast for the United States to 2.6% for this year, while raising forecasts for China to 5% and India to 7%, indicating a moderate global economic growth over the next two years.
- The IMF warns of a slowing inflation momentum and potential impact on the US dollar’s strength and developing countries, while noting improved global trade volumes, driven by strong exports from Asia.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report maintains the global growth forecast at 3.2% for this year and raises it to 3.3% for next year. The United States’ growth forecast has been lowered to 2.6% for this year, while China and India’s forecasts have been raised.
Asia’s emerging market economies remain the main engine for the global economy according to IMF latest World Economic Outlook Update, July 2024: The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot (imf.org). The upward revision of growth in India and China contributes to nearly half of the global growth. However, the outlook for the next five years appears subdued, primarily due to the diminishing momentum in emerging Asian economies. It is projected that by 2029, China’s growth will slow down to 3.3 percent, which is significantly lower than its present rate.
The US is showing signs of cooling, while the euro area is expected to pick up. However, there are concerns about rising inflation and fiscal challenges. Rising services prices and wages may keep overall inflation higher than desired, and countries need to tackle fiscal challenges more directly to rebuild buffers and address emerging spending needs.
There is growing concern about the gradual breakdown of the multilateral trading system, with more countries implementing unilateral measures that could distort trade and weaken global growth. The primary focus should be on sustainably enhancing growth prospects through efficient resource allocation, educational opportunities, innovation, and stronger policy frameworks. Constructive multilateral cooperation is key to ensuring a secure and prosperous economy for all.
